Market News
According to Farside Investors, the cumulative net inflow of the US Bitcoin spot ETF since its launch is $14.562 billion. Specifically, the iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) has a cumulative net inflow of $17.643 billion, the Fidelity Bitcoin ETF (FBTC) has a cumulative net inflow of $9.152 billion, and the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) has a cumulative net outflow of $18.36 billion.
According to data from The Block, as of June 20th, the premium rate of the Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) is currently at 1.71%. BlockBeats previously reported that on June 19th, Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart stated on social media that the Ethereum spot ETF is expected to be launched before July 4th.
On June 23rd, according to Scam Sniffer monitoring, a user lost $11 million worth of aEthMKR and Pendle USDe tokens five hours ago due to signing multiple phishing signatures on the Permit network.
Market Review
As mentioned in the article on the 18th, Bitcoin fell below the 120-day moving average. If it cannot recover within 24 hours, it is expected that the three-month oscillation will continue to decline. Resistance levels provided are currently being reached, and a rebound occurred near 63,300 over the weekend, with the current weekend oscillating around 64,200. As for Ethereum, the previous rebound was strong, leading to stop-loss, but it did not affect the subsequent downward trend along with Bitcoin. Overall, after a short-term break below the moving average, there may be a rebound after the weekend oscillation, so attention should be paid to the possibility of a rebound at the opening on Monday.
Market Analysis
Firstly, contrary to the positive buying of Bitcoin ETF due to previous inflation changes, Bitcoin ETF has sold $1 billion in assets over the past eight trading days. Secondly, off-exchange sales by Bitcoin miners have increased to the highest single-day trading volume since March, with sales exceeding 3,200 bitcoins in a day. Listed mining companies hold a 3% market share, but they sold a net of 8,000 bitcoins in May (June data has not been released, but miner sales have significantly increased). Bitcoin reserves of miners have decreased from $129 billion on June 5th to the current $118 billion. Finally, another group of sellers is early Bitcoin holders, with their sales amounting to $1.2 billion. All three seem satisfied with selling Bitcoin at prices above $70,000. The estimated average entry price for Bitcoin ETF is $60,000 to $61,000, and a return to this level could lead to a wave of liquidation. When Bitcoin fell to $56,500 on May 2nd, BlackRock issued a statement saying, "Sovereign wealth funds and pension funds are about to enter." This to some extent prevented further decline in Bitcoin, but now BlackRock states that 80% of the purchases of their Bitcoin ETF IBIT come from retail investors rather than institutions. Currently, the price level of $61,000 is consistent with the 21-week moving average, which has been a good risk management indicator in previous cycles when buying (Bitcoin price above the 21-week moving average) or selling. We estimate that 30% of the $14.5 billion Bitcoin ETF funds come from hedge funds seeking arbitrage, and the liquidation of the ETF over the past eight trading days indicates that these funds may not continue arbitrage trading (long ETF against short CME futures) as the futures expiration date (June 28) approaches, as the arbitrage opportunity has disappeared.
Due to the weakening attractiveness of arbitrage (funding rates), the purchase volume of this Bitcoin ETF has not increased. When the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) hinted at the possible approval of an Ethereum ETF on May 20th, the market structure improved significantly with the increase in futures positions. In about three weeks, the market purchased $4.4 billion in Ethereum futures positions (an increase of 50%) and $3 billion in Bitcoin futures. Combined with the CPI data on May 15th, this effectively improved the market structure and helped the Bitcoin price rise to $70,000, prompting early holders, miners, and ETFs to actively choose to sell their Bitcoin holdings.
From the daily chart, it can be seen that the market has broken through the upward trend line, which is the 120-day moving average. This position was very indecisive before the break. However, it ultimately chose to move downward, and this trend cannot be changed in the short term. The decline on Friday briefly reached around 63,300, and there were signs of a halt in the four-hour period. Without breaking the new low, one can attempt a rebound, with the target rebound levels at around 65,000-65,200 and near 66,100. If a rebound attempt is made, it will be the second selling point. At worst, it will fall to around 62,400, then 60,650, and if strong, it will break through 60,000, seeking support at 57,000/54,300. Ethereum is expected to follow suit, and once it starts to decline, a surge will be disastrous.
In summary, if the daily opening price cannot return to 65,000, the downward trend will remain unchanged, and the market is expected to continue to oscillate downward this quarter. It is advised to trade cautiously, as there are risks involved.
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