News
On June 17th, according to Arkham data, Grayscale transferred 422.6 BTC to the Coinbase Prime address today, and a total of 1788.8 BTC was transferred to 3 unmarked addresses in 3 transactions.
On June 17th, according to residual monitoring, after Justin Sun transferred the ETHFI airdrop to Binance, he continued to use 18,000 ETH (approximately $63.57 million) to purchase 18,075.8 weETH PT (expiring on June 27th).
On June 17th, according to The Data Nerd monitoring, a Smart Money address starting with 0x56f transferred the last 3.5 million ONDO tokens (approximately $4.16 million) to Bybit 18 hours ago.
Macro Analysis: On June 12th, the US announced that the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in May was 3.3%, a slight decrease from the previous and expected value of 3.4%. The month-on-month growth rate of CPI in May was 0%, lower than the expected 0.1%, and significantly slower than the previous value, reaching the lowest level since July 2022.
On the 13th, the month-on-month PPI in the US was -0.2% in May, the largest month-on-month decline since October 2023, lower than the estimated 0.1% and significantly lower than April's 0.5%.
On the 14th, the preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the US for June was 65.6, significantly lower than the expected 72, and the previous value in May was 69.1.
Based on these latest data, major Wall Street analysis institutions believe that the Federal Reserve is highly likely to make the first interest rate cut in September and cut interest rates three times in the same year. However, the press conference of the Federal Reserve on the 12th still showed a strong stance, and Powell admitted that the latest data had not been taken into account.
However, these macroeconomic positives are only reflected in the three AI giants. The financial blog Zerohedge commented: "Now it seems that only the top three tech companies - Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia - are important, with their market values almost the same, each about $3.2 trillion… In fact, there is nothing more important than these three companies now."
In terms of industry news, the most important news last week was the confirmation by the Chairman of the US SEC that the approval of the ETH spot ETF will be completed before the end of the summer. When this significant positive news will be reflected in the market still depends on the consensus and influx of funds at the macro level.
Market Analysis
BTC
From the four-hour chart, it can be seen that the M-top pattern is very obvious, and the neckline was also broken last Friday. After oscillating for two days over the weekend, the market saw another decline on Monday. The entire decline was not very smooth, with bulls and bears repeatedly struggling near the MA120 moving average, and the current market has shown signs of breaking the trend line coming from 38,000. In the short term, do not go long at this price. Overall, the bearish trend is quite strong, so do not open long positions without an accelerated decline. Pay attention to the important support around 63,800-63,500. Once it breaks, it may test around 60,608. 60,608 is the last defense for the bulls. In the evening, the short-term resistance above is around 65,600-65,800/66,028. There is no danger for the bears if it does not break 67,500.
ETH
From the daily chart, Ethereum is in a large-scale triangle oscillation. Although there was a small rebound over the weekend, it still cannot change the outcome of being pulled down by the big brother. At the same time, the MACD is running near the zero axis in a positive direction. Do not go long at the current price. Pay attention to the important support around 2,368 and 3,143 below. The resistance is around 3,552/3,595. If it does not break around 3,627, hold the short position firmly.
Summary: There is a macroeconomic divergence, causing the market funds to be polarized and in a state of contraction. Before the macro situation becomes clear, the overall market will continue to experience this hellish level of oscillation. In the short term, the bearish trend is strong but not dominant. Pay attention to the possibility of violent rebounds near strong support. This is in line with the institutional method of harvesting retail investors.
Be cautious when entering the market, as there are risks involved.
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