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On the morning of November 21st, at the second SHIFT Digital Transformation Summit held by Fourth Paradigm, the internet pioneer, founding editor of "Wired" magazine, and author of "Out of Control," Kevin Kelly (referred to as Kevin below) delivered an online speech titled "The Transformative Power of AI."

Kevin stated that artificial intelligence (AI) is the most important technology at present and is almost everywhere. In the next ten years, AI may even develop thousands of different types, and humans will have thousands of AIs, many of which have different ideas and ways of thinking. At the same time, AI is not only "lowercase creativity," but also seen as a "personal assistant" for humans.

Kevin mentioned that after programmers used AI to write code, they found that their work efficiency increased by 56%. With the use of new AI large models (LLM), conversational user interfaces (CUI), and other core technologies in the future, 50% of people's work may be replaced by AI, while the other 50% of work can be improved with the help of AI.

"Unnecessary work has been eliminated, and AI can help you complete the remaining work," Kevin said. Whether it's work or life, AI has an "N+1" effect for humans. AI will not take away your job, but without AI, your resume will lack a bright spot. A person will not be replaced by AI, but may be replaced by someone who understands AI. Therefore, people should master this technology.

It is reported that Kevin Kelly, often referred to as "KK," was the first editor-in-chief of "Wired" magazine and has also served as the editor and publisher of "Whole Earth Review." Kevin has multiple identities: writer, photographer, advocate for natural resource conservation, scholar in the fields of Asian culture and digital culture, and internet industry pioneer. He is considered a spokesperson and observer of "cyberculture" and has been called a "maverick." His representative works include "Out of Control" and others.

In his speech, Kevin mentioned that although AI technology seems very powerful, its capabilities are quite limited.

Kevin pointed out that new AI is trained with all human achievements, including the best and the worst, so it obtains an average, average intelligence. Therefore, AI is actually only at the average level that an ordinary person can achieve, so it tends to provide seemingly reasonable results, but cannot guarantee accurate results.

In Kevin's view, AI can be a partner, teammate, coach, copilot, guide, assistant, intern, and more for humans. He mentioned that the future human jobs influenced by AI mainly include remote work, collaborative work, the education industry, the manufacturing industry, and large sales platforms.

It is reported that at the SHIFT Digital Transformation Summit, AI-listed company Fourth Paradigm (06682.HK) released a full-chain selected solution for enterprise North Star indicators, named the "Fan Ecology" platform, to help every solution collect the correct data and build the correct system for the right AI goals, jointly serving the enhancement of the core competitiveness of enterprises. Dai Wenyuan, founder and CEO of Fourth Paradigm, stated that the company hopes to collaborate with more partners to ensure that every execution system for enterprise digitalization is aimed at enhancing the core competitiveness of enterprises.

"In the upcoming AI era, we should be prepared for it. Although there are no answers yet, we are already in it," Kevin said.

The following is a shorthand summary of Kevin Kelly's speech (with some editing):

Hello, everyone, I'm Kevin Kelly.

Here, I want to talk about artificial intelligence, which can be said to be the most important technology at present. You may have heard a lot about artificial intelligence because it is almost everywhere. This is the most powerful technology I have ever seen. It is developing very fast, but many people still don't understand it very well. I want to share with you 5 interesting cold facts about AI.

The first important thing is that there is not just one type of artificial intelligence. It is diverse and has many types. In the next ten years, there may even be thousands of them. Just like we have thousands of applications, thousands of apps, thousands of tools, and thousands of machines, we will also have thousands of artificial intelligence. (These AIs) have many different ideas and ways of thinking, and will be used to do different things that require different cognition. So when we talk about artificial intelligence, we are actually talking about those technologies collectively referred to as "AI."

This tells us that if we want to describe these different ways of thinking, we will find that "human" is not such a universal term after all.

I like to call the ideas that create these artificial intelligence "alien thinking" because they are so different. Even the smartest artificial intelligence thinks differently from us. They have unique thought processes. This is a good thing for us because in this new economy, the only way to succeed is to innovate and create our own technology and products in a unique way. So through these artificial intelligence technologies that think differently from us, we can also create wealth in the new economy.

Someone told me before, and maybe you have heard it too, that computers are not creative, and creativity is something only humans can do. Computers only follow instructions and will never be creative. This is wrong.

Artificial intelligence is already creative. I call it "lowercase creativity."

"Lowercase" means that it has not yet reached the level of creating major breakthroughs. Most of the things created by artificial intelligence are quite ordinary at present. For example, designers use AI technology to design company logos and the like. This is not a breakthrough because it is not very complex. It is quite mechanical. It is just a small innovation. But this "lowercase creativity" is something that artificial intelligence is very, very good at.

This is an image generated by artificial intelligence. You will be amazed at how perfect it is in handling details. It is very creative, but it is not Picasso. Because it has not reached the level of being refreshing and subverting past creations. It just fills in the points we haven't thought of yet. So this is just "lowercase creativity," very ordinary and practical, but also creative.

Many of these creativities actually come from the people using these AI technologies. They are the ones who give instructions and prompts to artificial intelligence. So in fact, it is the cooperation between artificial intelligence and humans that completes these everyday creations.

We find that artificial intelligence is really good at synthesis, combining things in a way you never thought of. For example, I used AI image technology to try to combine a watermelon and a jumping spider, and it would generate a watermelon spider. Strange, but very creative. It is difficult for us to create. Anyone can do it, I can do it too, but it takes time and effort. And artificial intelligence can complete this kind of synthesis very, very quickly. This kind of synthesis is a challenge that artificial intelligence is very good at.

As we use AI more, synthesis tools will become more and more useful. They can even be used in scientific research. For example, finding ideas in medicine and computer fields, you can use AI to explore the combination of the two, which was not possible before, as these all required experts to operate.

You will find that sometimes people who use AI do better than others. Because they spend far more time on this matter, they have become interpreters of artificial intelligence. They understand artificial intelligence and can give correct instructions. You will find that to become an interpreter of artificial intelligence and be able to communicate with it, it takes a considerable amount of time.

This is something that has no shortcuts; you need to become intimate with it. Only by understanding its way of working can you maximize its use. Those who give commands to artificial intelligence can be considered new artists. It's like a music producer using the studio as a new instrument.

If we consider artificial intelligence as a new artistic tool, to truly master it, you have to become the one who can give it commands. This type of engineer is becoming more and more valuable. There are already companies advertising to recruit excellent designers who can use AI.

I believe that the best way to understand our relationship with artificial intelligence is to see it as our "personal assistant." Basically, everyone in the world will have at least one "personal assistant." Maybe more than one, as long as you want, you can use it indefinitely. You can ask yourself, what do you most need a "personal assistant" to help you with? How can it change your life? After having 1-2 full-time "personal assistants," what do you most want to do? This is what artificial intelligence can bring to us.

But it's important to remember that AI has limited capabilities. They are more like your interns. The reason is that these new AIs are trained with all human achievements, including the best and the worst, so they obtain an average, average intelligence, although it is ordinary, it is generally sufficient for many things.

In fact, AI is actually only at the average level that an ordinary person can achieve. Therefore, it tends to provide seemingly reasonable results, but cannot guarantee accurate results.

Right? So the way it works is that artificial intelligence will generate things that an ordinary person can think of and do. But ordinary people often make mistakes, so you still need to check the work of AI, like checking the work of an intern. You cannot fully trust it.

They generate very good first drafts, very good initial summaries, and the content is okay, something an ordinary person can do. But ordinary people often make mistakes, and interns often make mistakes, so you need to check their work.

On the other hand, artificial intelligence is actually very good at doing organizing tasks, like an intern. Summarizing, highlighting key points, and summarizing. We call it "meta-work," the work of supervising the results of work. This is very, very important. But you need to check the work completed by interns. You cannot completely trust it as if you did it yourself.

Programmers use this AI skill to write ordinary code. For most of the code, this is sufficient, and it is also easy for programmers to check. After using AI to write code, they found that their work efficiency increased by 56%. Through the use of artificial intelligence, the work efficiency of writers has also increased.

We can see that 50% of people's tasks may be replaced by artificial intelligence. The other 50% of work can be improved with the help of AI. Unnecessary work has been eliminated, and AI can help you complete the remaining work.

It takes a long time to become proficient in using AI. AI is just like anything else; we need to learn and train to use it well, just like using any other tool. Of course, many functional points related to AI do not need deliberate training to use. But like any other tool, AI becomes more useful the more it is used. The more proficient you are, the more you will benefit.

AI will not take away your job, but without AI, your resume will lack a bright spot. A person will not be replaced by artificial intelligence, but may be replaced by someone who understands AI. So you also need to master this technology.

Whether it's work or life, I believe that AI has an "N+1" effect for us.

A centaur is a mythical figure that is half human and half horse. It's very similar to what we are doing. Completing various tasks with an AI assistant is like creating a centaur. In the medical field, human doctors are very impressive, and some doctors may be better than others. But overall, every doctor is great. Maybe human doctors are more capable than AI doctors at the moment. But a combination of a human doctor and an AI doctor is more capable than either alone.

So, this "N+1" means that the combination of a doctor and AI is stronger in terms of diagnostic ability, understanding, and problem-solving than a doctor alone. It is not only stronger than a doctor alone, but also stronger than an AI doctor alone. Together, they are a strong combination. Also, even an AI doctor is always better than no doctor.

This is why we should use artificial intelligence for two reasons.

Not only for doctors, the same goes for teachers. A teacher who can use artificial intelligence is more capable than a teacher who cannot, or an AI teacher, but similarly, an AI teacher is always better than no teacher; a programmer who can use artificial intelligence is more capable than one who cannot, or an AI program, and even a truck driver who can use artificial intelligence is better than one who cannot, or an AI program.

This is the direction we are heading in. We want to achieve many "N+1." Artificial intelligence can be a partner, teammate, coach, copilot, guide, assistant, intern, and more for humans. We work together with artificial intelligence.

Next, I will introduce the changes in the interaction of artificial intelligence.

Artificial intelligence is not a new thing. Many of the artificial intelligence we see today have been around for at least five years, even ten years. For example, facial recognition systems. The first wave of artificial intelligence was about pattern recognition and pattern creation. This pattern can be a sentence, it can be drawing a small cat, it can be anything. The recognition pattern can be a face or a voice.

After that is the generation pattern, which is not a new technology. But in the past year, there has been very exciting new content. One is LLM, a large language model. The other is CUI, conversational user interface. Let me explain in detail:

The first one, the large language model.

In fact, building a large language model is to discover the patterns of human language. It turns out that hidden deep in the structure of language itself are our thinking and reasoning patterns and logical patterns. It's not just about grammar patterns, and it's not just about syntax patterns. It's about the logical patterns hidden in language, and if you look at what someone says, you can extract arguments, reason through their thoughts and logic. So this small reasoning will allow LLM to some extent to mimic human thinking processes. It does this by predicting the next word, a word that everyone would say.

So LLM has reasoning ability, which is a change that is happening or will happen today. If you were to mimic human reasoning, you would definitely be able to do it, there is no doubt about it. In many tests, humans pass the test and it ends. Until recently, many people believed that only humans could pass this kind of test. But actually, passing these tests does not require too much reasoning, because much of the content is about knowledge and understanding how knowledge works. So LLM can capture the thinking and logical patterns in any written language, which is quite surprising.

The second one is conversational interaction.

It wasn't a new technology, but it was a command-line tool that allowed programming through text that I only realized after being on the internet for a long time. It's a text interface. The explosive development of the internet began when graphic user interfaces were used to create web pages, where you could directly drag and drop images. The appearance of the graphic user interface changed everything and made the internet the mainstream at the time. Artificial intelligence is also undergoing the same development, and until recently, it still represented programming code for people. To use it, you had to have some knowledge of programming and know a lot about code structure.

Now, the conversational user interface implemented by the large language model has changed this. You can use any language, in a conversational way, to interact with artificial intelligence. Artificial intelligence not only understands language but also has the ability to converse, to talk with people, which is a huge change. We can apply this conversational user interface, which has already been applied to artificial intelligence, to anything else. For example, it can be applied to your car, so you can talk directly to the car, or you can interact with a spreadsheet, and so on. This is what the conversational user interface can do based on the extracted structure and patterns of human language. All of these will help us understand the commercial operation of AI.

Please remember, for a technology, when you can't see it, it has succeeded. I believe that 95% of artificial intelligence technologies in the future will be like this, because they are basically working in the background. What artificial intelligence does in the background is prediction, and it makes the cost of prediction very low. In the past, continuous prediction was very expensive, very unreliable, and very difficult to achieve. But now it has become cheap. The work of these large language models and other artificial intelligence is to predict the next thing, the next pixel, the next word, or the next number.

So you can ask yourself, as a business, can you predict what people will buy, what the popular color will be next season, what will happen in the next ten minutes, or what will happen in the next two months? If you can make reliable and inexpensive predictions like this, then you have mastered the new power brought by artificial intelligence technology.

The role of artificial intelligence in business is mainly reflected in two aspects: one is internal, where employees will use AI technology to improve workflow; the other is external, where customers use your artificial intelligence technology. Bringing value to customers.

Internal and external, processes and products all use artificial intelligence, but they are completely different. The internal artificial intelligence of an organization is used in processes, such as writing code, facilitating communication, and financial personnel use it to create reports and build budget models. This will ultimately have a greater impact on our lives, even greater than the effect of customer use.

Whether it's robots or self-driving cars, or retail websites, you can simulate results with artificial intelligence. These will change our lives, but I believe that changes in internal processes, how they change, and how we work will become more important.

In the past, the arrival of electricity completely changed people's views on what a company is, how you work in a company, how a company is organized, and employee relationships.

I believe the AI era will also bring about such changes. The emergence of AI has changed our way of life and has also changed the operating models of many companies.

The first group of people affected by artificial intelligence are those who can work remotely, those who have non-desk jobs, and those who work in collaborative companies, which are basically companies that have been reprogrammed.

The second group of people affected by AI are often smaller, younger, and already in transition, and have undergone changes through the use of artificial intelligence in programming, such as the healthcare industry, which has a high degree of compatibility with AI and may undergo certain changes.

The third is the education industry;

The fourth is the manufacturing industry, where AI is being applied in factories;

The fifth is large sales platforms, not retailers.

In fact, the path to artificial intelligence is like a ladder. In old-fashioned businesses and conventional industries, there was no digitization at the beginning. When you start to demand data, this is a big step for the digitalization of the enterprise, followed by digitizing all information and digitizing everyone's work.

The path to artificial intelligence is like a ladder. In old-fashioned businesses and conventional industries, there was no digitization at the beginning. When you start to demand data, this is a big step for the digitalization of the enterprise, followed by digitizing all information and digitizing everyone's work.

This is a big event for many industries, and many companies still have a long way to go.

This is what is coming, and we should be prepared for it. Although there are no answers yet, we are already in it. I believe that the purpose of using artificial intelligence and robots is to help us become better people. We are taking the first step in this direction.

Thank you for your attention.

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