Tonight's Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes: Historical Documents Face New Tariff War Situation, Powell Turns Hawkish, Where Will BTC Go?
Macroeconomic Interpretation: The Federal Reserve meeting minutes will be released at 2 AM UTC+8 on Thursday. This document details the discussions surrounding the interest rate decision made on March 19-20, when the Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50% and signaled a policy of three rate cuts of 25 basis points each within the year.
However, the market landscape has dramatically changed since Trump announced the global tariff plan on April 2, leading to a significant drop in U.S. stocks, with several economists warning of a potential economic recession this year. In a speech on April 4, Powell clearly shifted to a hawkish stance, warning that "we are facing a highly uncertain outlook while bearing the risks of rising unemployment and inflation." The latest futures market data shows that traders have raised their expectations for rate cuts this year to four times.
Coinank Research Institute believes that from the perspective of the misalignment between macroeconomic policy and market expectations, the upcoming March meeting minutes will impact the crypto market in the following dimensions:
Lagging Policy Signals and Market Expectation Reconstruction: The March meeting minutes reflect the policy stance of the "pre-tariff era" (maintaining rates at 4.25%-4.5% and three rate cuts this year), but the current market has adjusted its expectations to four rate cuts this year due to Trump's tariff plan and Powell's hawkish turn (warning of rising unemployment and inflation risks on April 4). This expectation gap may lead to increased market volatility after the minutes are released, especially if the minutes reveal significant internal disagreements among decision-makers (such as Waller opposing a slowdown in balance sheet reduction), which could further question the Fed's policy flexibility and suppress risk asset preferences.
Diverging Liquidity Expectations and Crypto Market Linkage: The Fed's decision in March to slow down balance sheet reduction (reducing the pace of Treasury bond sales from $25 billion to $5 billion per month) was intended to alleviate liquidity pressure, but the impact of tariffs and recession warnings may weaken its effectiveness. The crypto market is sensitive to liquidity; if the minutes reveal more concerns about financial stability (such as debt sustainability risks), Bitcoin may again show a positive correlation with traditional risk assets (U.S. stocks) rather than exhibiting safe-haven properties. Currently, the 30-day correlation coefficient between BTC and the S&P 500 is 0.72; if liquidity expectations worsen, high-beta altcoins may face greater selling pressure.
Rate Cut Path Game and Crypto Asset Positioning: Although the market has raised its expectations for rate cuts to four times, the wording in the March minutes about "relying on hard data" (such as an unemployment rate of 4.1% and core PCE inflation of 2.8%) may suggest that the Fed is cautious about premature easing. The crypto market needs to be wary of two scenarios: first, if the minutes indicate inflation concerns are higher than expected, a rebound in the dollar index may suppress BTC from breaking through key resistance levels; second, if recession signals strengthen (such as unemployment rising more than expected), institutions may prioritize reducing crypto asset holdings to supplement traditional market margins, triggering a liquidity siphoning effect.
In summary, the meeting minutes may exacerbate the "policy uncertainty premium," and short-term volatility in the crypto market (current BTC 30-day volatility at 34%) may rise. In the medium to long term, if rate cut expectations materialize and ETF fund inflows resonate, Bitcoin may regain the narrative dominance of "anti-stagflation," but it needs to break through significant pressure zones where short positions are concentrated to confirm the trend.
BTC Data Analysis:
Coinank's latest data shows that yesterday, the total net outflow of the #BTC spot ETF was $326 million, marking four consecutive days of net outflows. The Bitcoin spot ETF with the highest single-day net outflow yesterday was BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF IBIT, with a net outflow of $253 million. The total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is $85.756 billion, and the ETF net asset ratio (market value as a percentage of Bitcoin's total market value) reached 5.6%, with a historical cumulative net inflow of $35.637 billion.
We believe that the $326 million net outflow from the Bitcoin spot ETF, especially the record outflow of $253 million from BlackRock's IBIT, reflects an upgrade in institutional investors' rebalancing strategies during a period of macro policy uncertainty. This anomaly can be broken down into three driving factors:
Liquidity Repricing Logic: IBIT, as the largest ETF product (with a historical net inflow of $39.66 billion), has seen a significant outflow, possibly related to the rise in U.S. Treasury yields to 4.5%, prompting institutions to reduce risk exposure. Data shows that hedge funds are hedging spot selling pressure by shorting CME Bitcoin futures (with open interest increasing by 12%), forming a cross-market arbitrage loop.
Capital Migration Effect: The total net asset value of ETFs has shrunk to $85.76 billion, but the net asset ratio remains stable at 5.6%, indicating that the selling pressure has been partially offset by a synchronous adjustment in Bitcoin's market value (down 8.7% over the week). The current outflow scale accounts for only 0.9% of the historical cumulative net inflow, and core allocation funds (accounting for about 82%) have not yet loosened, suggesting that the short-term disturbance is primarily temporary.
Structural Warning Signals: Smaller ETFs like Bitwise BITB are also experiencing outflows, reflecting an intensifying stratification of market liquidity— the top three ETFs control 87% of the market share, while tail-end products may face liquidation pressure. However, on-chain whales have increased their holdings by 18,000 BTC around the $68,000 mark, forming a buffer zone for chip accumulation.
The future path may depend on two key variables: first, whether the Fed's June rate cut expectations can recover from the current 42% probability, driving a repair in risk appetite; second, whether Bitcoin can establish technical support at $65,000 (the average cost line for miners). If macro liquidity improves marginally, ETF fund flows may rebound with volatility, but in the short term, caution is needed regarding the negative feedback transmission of "institutional de-leveraging - retail leverage liquidation."
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