"Liberation Day" is now upon us, with President Trump expected to announce large-scale tariffs — including reciprocal tariffs — later on Wednesday. However, amid the significant tariff-induced derisking, some analysts see light at the end of the tunnel, with U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve developments flying under the radar.

Bitcoin is down approximately 4% over the past week, as an unfavorable PCE reading and the latest tariff announcement ping-pong saw crypto and equity markets sell-off. Tariffs remain the primary market-moving factor, while U.S. jobs data later this week may bring more volatility, according to analysts at K33.

Bitcoin and equities price performance. Image: K33.

Goldman Sachs estimates that Trump will announce reciprocal tariffs that average 15% across all U.S. trading partners, K33 Head of Research Vetle Lunde and Senior Analyst David Zimmerman noted in a Tuesday report. Such heightened tariff expectations are reflected in the defensiveness of CME traders as futures premiums fell back to 5% alongside open interest plummeting to 11-month lows of 133,790 BTC, they said.

Offshore perpetual futures funding rates also reflect a cautious market, having not averaged at or above neutral levels in the past 69 days, they added.

"We expect tariff announcements to have a big impact on the market with correlations between equities and bitcoin remaining high," Lunde and Zimmerman said, with their base case being that this will enforce choppy conditions throughout April and see bitcoin extend its consolidation in the $75,000 to $88,000 range. "We don't expect a sense of certainty and clarity post-April 2, as we expect responses, negotiations, sudden turnarounds and surprises throughout April."

BRN lead analyst Valentin Fournier told The Block that Trump's speech is a key risk event as his rhetoric has been unpredictable — oscillating between threats of massive tariffs and promises of measured, reciprocal trade policies. "Given this uncertainty, we expect elevated volatility, with a potential downside risk if market expectations are disappointed. Until tariff uncertainty clears, we recommend staying cautious with low overall exposure to digital assets," Fournier said.

Those concerns are shared by analysts at QCP Capital, who don't expect a meaningful market reversal without a material shift in macro or a compelling catalyst. "The latest wave of tariffs appear to target a broad swatch of countries, including Japan, China, Canada and the EU," the QCP analysts said, anticipating all risk assets to remain under pressure. "The U.S. seems increasingly intent on isolating itself in pursuit of more favorable trading terms, but early indications suggest that key counterparts aren't inclined to concede."

Meanwhile, Pat Zhang, Head of Research at crypto exchange WOO X warned the U.S. bitcoin mining industry, which heavily relies on Chinese manufacturers that control 70% to 80% of the global ASIC market, was particularly vulnerable to Trump's announcements. Further tariffs could increase hardware costs, delays and shortages — ultimately impacting hashrate activity in the U.S. — Zhang said.

However, Matt Mena, Crypto Research Strategist at 21Shares, was slightly more positive. "It's paramount that BTC stays above the $80K-$81K range — otherwise, a retest of the recent $76.5K lows becomes increasingly likely … but we think broader risk sentiment remains intact," Mena told The Block. "BTC will likely consolidate between $81K and $85K until there's more clarity around the full implications of Wednesday's tariffs. That said, these levels look attractive, with both BTC and ETH still sitting comfortably above long-term support."

Meanwhile, the K33 analysts argued that U.S. bitcoin reserve developments have gotten lost beneath the tariff headlines, with federal agencies scheduled to submit reports by April 5 outlining their authority to transfer digital assets to the reserve. 

President Trump signed an executive order on March 6 to create a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, established from the approximate 200,000 BTC ($17 billion) already owned by the federal government that was forfeited as part of criminal or civil proceedings, minus those that still need to be returned to victims of crime.

"This brings us closer to clarification on the reserve’s initial composition and value," Lunde and Zimmerman said. "The transparency following this deadline is unclear, but we might see large onchain transactions and consolidation to the U.S. Treasury department and the early soft launch of the SBR. We expect the Bitfinex-hacked funds (94,636 BTC) to be transferred to the exchange following this deadline. Volatility may follow such a transfer, especially since headlines still reference the total U.S. Gov. BTC holdings of ~200K BTC in relation to the SBR."

Additionally, Trump directed Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to develop budget-neutral strategies for acquiring additional bitcoin, provided they have no incremental costs to American taxpayers.

However, details on budget-neutral acquisition strategies aren't expected until closer to 60 days after the executive order, around May 5, when Bessent will deliver an evaluation of the legal and investment considerations for the reserve.

"Another crypto summit could also happen in early to mid-May, re-drumming up excitement as tariff headlines gradually taper," Lunde and Zimmerman said.

Estimated status of current U.S. bitcoin reserves. Image: K33.

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