Solana (SOL) traded at $198.05 per coin at 10:20 a.m. ET on Feb. 7, 2025, down 15.8% against the U.S. dollar over the past week, according to pricing data. The slump comes amid broader crypto market volatility, but analysts at VanEck argue the blockchain’s long-term fundamentals remain strong.

In an X post published Thursday, Vaneck’s Matthew Sigel and Patrick Bush outlined a $520 price target for SOL by December 2025, based on Solana’s projected growth within the smart contract platform (SCP) sector. The forecast hinges on the correlation between U.S. M2 money supply growth and crypto market capitalization.

Vaneck expects M2 — a measure of money supply including cash and liquid deposits — to grow 3.2% annually, reaching $22.3 trillion by late 2025. Using regression analysis, Vaneck estimates the total SCP market cap will rise 43% to $1.1 trillion by year-end 2025, surpassing its 2021 peak of $989 billion. The firm noted a statistically significant relationship between M2 and SCP valuations, with a 12-month moving average R² of 0.36 and a t-statistic of 5.7 (p < 0.0001).

Vaneck predicts Solana’s share of the SCP market will climb from 15% to 22% in 2025, citing its significant developer activity and several other features associated with the Solana network. An autoregressive model projects SOL’s market cap could hit $250 billion, translating to a $520 SOL price assuming approximately 486 million tokens in circulation.

“Using an autoregressive (AR) forecast model, we estimate Solana’s market cap will reach ~$250B, implying a SOL price of $520 based on ~486M floating tokens,” Sigel and Bush wrote. They emphasized its decentralized exchange (dex), revenues, and active users as key differentiators against competitors.

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