#Probability of Fed rate cut declines#

The probability of a Fed rate cut in March has declined significantly recently. According to the CME Group's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in January was 97.3%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut was only 2.7%. By March, the probability of keeping current interest rates unchanged had risen to 74.0%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points had fallen to 25.4%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points had fallen to 0.6%. This indicates that the market expects the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in March to have significantly decreased. Wells Fargo also stated that the possibility of a Fed rate cut in March is becoming increasingly unlikely. This is closely related to the recent release of non-farm payroll data, which showed that the US job market remains strong, providing support for the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged. Although inflation has declined, the Fed remains concerned about the persistence of inflation and may need more time to determine whether inflation has been brought under control. Therefore, the market expects the Fed to refrain from taking rate-cutting measures in the near term and instead continue to monitor economic data and make decisions based on economic conditions.