#Buy Bitcoin on dips#

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Hot Topic Overview

Overview

The Bitcoin market is currently showing some stability, with prices rebounding to near $95,000, supported by bargain hunters. Recently, Bitcoin prices tested the long-term support zone of $90,000-$93,000, which has successfully prevented at least six declines since the second half of November. However, the upcoming US non-farm payrolls report will test this latest rebound. A stronger-than-expected jobs report could exacerbate concerns about the Fed's hawkish stance, further pushing up inflation-adjusted bond yields, putting pressure on risk assets. On the other hand, if the jobs data is weak, it could trigger market expectations of a Fed rate cut and shift market sentiment significantly in favor of risk assets, allowing Bitcoin to attempt to break through $100,000 again.

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Analysis

Bitcoin is facing a key test with the upcoming jobs report, with the market having regained some stability, with BTC climbing back to near $95,000 as order books show dip buyers. Prices tested the long-term support zone of $90,000-$93,000 late Wednesday, an area that has successfully stopped at least six dips since the second half of November. However, Friday's US nonfarm payrolls report will test this latest rebound. A stronger-than-expected jobs report could exacerbate concerns about a hawkish Fed, further pushing up inflation-adjusted bond yields, complicating the outlook for risk assets. These yields have been rising due to inflation concerns, causing BTC to plummet from $102,000 to $93,000 in the past four days. The prevailing Fed-driven pessimism means any signs of weakness in the jobs data could trigger a strong market reaction, reigniting arguments for Fed rate cuts and shifting market sentiment significantly in favor of risk assets. If the data misses expectations by a wide margin, BTC could easily attempt $100,000 again, provided the US government, which holds about $18.5 billion in BTC, does not dump a large amount into the market.

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Classic Views

Bitcoin buyers on dips are supporting the market, but key US jobs data could impact prices.

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Stronger-than-expected jobs data could exacerbate concerns about the Fed's hawkish stance, further pushing up real yields, which is negative for risk assets, including Bitcoin.

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If jobs data is weak, it could spark market expectations of Fed rate cuts, which would be positive for risk assets, and Bitcoin could again attempt to break through $100,000.

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The US government holds a large amount of Bitcoin, and its selling could have a significant impact on the market.

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