#The Fed may cut interest rates.#

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Hot Topic Overview

Overview

The market currently expects the Fed to cut rates once in 2025, with the earliest possible cut coming in June. Traders have already shifted the full pricing of the next Fed rate cut to October, indicating that market expectations for a Fed rate cut are gradually heating up. While the Fed has not yet explicitly stated that it will cut rates, concerns about a recession and signs of declining inflation pressure have created the possibility of a rate cut.

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Analysis

There is a divergence in market expectations regarding a Fed rate cut. Traders anticipate a Fed rate cut in 2025, potentially as early as June. However, some traders have adjusted their full pricing for the next Fed rate cut to October. This indicates uncertainty in the market about the future direction of Fed monetary policy, with some traders believing a rate cut could occur as early as June this year, while others believe it may be delayed until October. This could be related to recent economic data performance, inflation trends, and statements from Fed officials.

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