#Buy Bitcoin on dips#

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Hot Topic Overview

Overview

The Bitcoin market is currently showing some stability, with prices rebounding to near $95,000, supported by bargain hunters. Recently, Bitcoin prices tested the long-term support zone of $90,000-$93,000, which has successfully prevented at least six declines since the second half of November. However, the upcoming US non-farm payrolls report will test this rebound. The report is expected to show an increase of 164,000 jobs in December. Stronger-than-expected employment data could exacerbate concerns about the Fed's hawkish stance, further pushing up inflation-adjusted bond yields, putting pressure on risk assets. On the other hand, if the employment data is weak, it could trigger market expectations of a Fed rate cut, which would be positive for risk assets. Therefore, the direction of Bitcoin prices will depend on the outcome of the employment data release.

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Analysis

The Bitcoin market has seen some stabilization recently, with prices rebounding to near $95,000 as order books show dip buyers. The market tested the long-term support zone of $90,000-$93,000 late Wednesday, a zone that has successfully prevented at least six dips since the second half of November. However, Friday's US nonfarm payrolls report will test this latest rebound, with expectations for 164,000 new jobs added in December. A stronger-than-expected jobs report could exacerbate concerns about a hawkish Fed, further pushing up real yields and complicating the outlook for risk assets. On the other hand, if the data is weak, it could trigger market expectations of Fed rate cuts and shift market sentiment significantly in favor of risk assets. Therefore, Bitcoin's trajectory will largely depend on the outcome of the jobs report and the direction of Fed policy.

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Classic Views

Bitcoin buyers on dips are supporting prices, but key US jobs data could impact market direction.

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Stronger-than-expected jobs data could exacerbate concerns about the Fed's hawkish stance, further pushing up inflation-adjusted bond yields, which would be negative for risk assets, including Bitcoin.

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If jobs data is weak, it could trigger market expectations of Fed rate cuts, which would be positive for risk assets, and Bitcoin could again attempt to break through $100,000.

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The US government holds a large amount of Bitcoin, and its selling could impact market direction.

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