#Biden May Pardon SBF#

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Overview

Currently, Polymarket users believe there is a 4% chance that Biden will pardon SBF before leaving office, and a 2% chance that he will pardon Ross Ulbricht. While SBF is currently serving a 25-year sentence, pending appeal, and Silk Road founder Ulbricht was sentenced to life in prison in 2015, Polymarket users believe Biden is more likely to pardon SBF. It is worth noting that Biden recently commuted the sentences of over 1,500 people, while Trump had promised to look into Ulbricht's case. This information suggests that there is a degree of expectation among the public that Biden may pardon SBF, even though SBF's case is not yet finalized.

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Analysis

There has been much discussion recently about whether President Biden will pardon former FTX CEO SBF. According to bets placed by Polymarket users, Biden is more likely to pardon SBF than Ross Ulbricht, the founder of Silk Road. SBF is currently serving a 25-year sentence while awaiting appeal, while Ulbricht was sentenced to life in prison in 2015. While Biden recently commuted the sentences of over 1,500 people, Polymarket users believe there is only a 4% chance that Biden will pardon SBF before leaving office, and an even lower 2% chance that he will pardon Ulbricht. Notably, Trump had promised to look into Ulbricht's case. Therefore, while SBF's pardon appears more likely, the final decision rests with Biden.

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Classic Views

The possibility of Biden pardoning SBF is low, Polymarket users predict it to be 4%

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The possibility of Biden pardoning Ross Ulbricht is even lower, Polymarket users predict it to be 2%

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Biden's recent clemency actions have provided some possibility for him to pardon SBF

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Trump had promised to handle Ulbricht's case, but ultimately did not pardon him

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