#The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged in January.#
Hot Topic Overview
Overview
The Federal Reserve is highly likely to keep interest rates unchanged in January. According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of the Fed holding rates steady was 95.2% before the release of the ADP data, with only a 4.8% chance of a 25 basis point cut. Even after the release of the ADP and initial jobless claims data, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged remained high at 93.1%, with a 6.9% chance of a 25 basis point cut. This suggests that the market widely expects the Fed to hold rates steady at its January meeting, although the possibility of a rate cut in the coming months remains.
Ace Hot Topic Analysis
Analysis
The Federal Reserve is highly likely to keep interest rates unchanged at its January policy meeting. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, before the release of ADP data, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged was 95.2%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut was only 4.8%. After the release of ADP and initial jobless claims data, although the probability of keeping rates unchanged slightly decreased to 93.1%, the possibility of a rate cut remained low, with a 25 basis point rate cut probability of 6.9%. This suggests that despite recent economic data volatility, the market generally expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged in January and continue to monitor economic data changes. It is worth noting that there is a divergence in market expectations for Fed policy in the coming months. By March, the probability of keeping current rates unchanged is 58.6%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 38.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 2.6%, indicating that the market expects the Fed to start cutting rates in the coming months, but the magnitude and timing of rate cuts remain uncertain.
Public Sentiment · Discussion Word Cloud
Public Sentiment
Discussion Word Cloud
Classic Views
The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in January is extremely high, currently exceeding 93.1%.
Market expectations for the Fed to cut rates at its March meeting are rising, with the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points exceeding 35%.
After the release of ADP and initial jobless claims data, market expectations for a Fed rate cut have increased.
Fed Watch Tool shows that there is some divergence in market expectations for the Fed's future policy direction, but maintaining interest rates unchanged remains the mainstream view.