#The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged in January.#

The Federal Reserve is highly likely to keep interest rates unchanged at its January policy meeting. According to CME's "FedWatch," before the release of ADP data, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged was 95.2%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut was only 4.8%. After the release of ADP and initial jobless claims data, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged slightly decreased to 93.1%, the possibility of a rate cut remained low, with a 25 basis point rate cut probability of 6.9%. This suggests that despite recent economic data volatility, the market generally expects the Fed to remain on hold at its January meeting and not rush to adjust monetary policy. It is worth noting that there is still divergence in market expectations for future interest rate movements. The probability of keeping current rates unchanged until March is 58.6%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 38.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 2.6%. This indicates that the Fed's monetary policy direction in the coming months will continue to be influenced by economic data and inflation trends.