#The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged in January.#

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The Federal Reserve is highly likely to keep interest rates unchanged in January. According to CME's "FedWatch," before the release of ADP data, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged was 95.2%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut was 4.8%. After the release of ADP and initial jobless claims data, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged slightly decreased to 93.1%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut increased to 6.9%. Although the possibility of a rate cut has increased after the data release, the probability of keeping rates unchanged still dominates.

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The Federal Reserve is highly likely to keep interest rates unchanged at its January meeting. According to CME's "FedWatch," before the release of ADP data, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in January was 95.2%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut was only 4.8%. After the release of ADP and initial jobless claims data, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in January fell slightly to 93.1%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut rose to 6.9%. Although the probability of a rate cut increased after the data release, the likelihood of keeping rates unchanged still dominates. This suggests that the market generally expects the Fed to remain cautious at its January meeting and not rush to cut rates. However, market expectations for Fed policy in the coming months are more uncertain. The probability of keeping current rates unchanged in March is 62.8%, while the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 35.5%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 1.6%. This indicates that the market believes the Fed may adjust its policy in the future based on economic data performance, and does not rule out the possibility of a rate cut.

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The Federal Reserve is highly likely to keep interest rates unchanged in January, currently at 93.1%, the market expects the Fed to cut rates in March, with a 38.8% probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points, the possibility of the Fed cutting rates by 50 basis points is low, currently only 2.6%, after the release of ADP and initial jobless claims data, the market's expectation of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in January has declined.

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