#The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged in January.#
Hot Topic Overview
Overview
The Federal Reserve is highly likely to keep interest rates unchanged in January. According to CME's "FedWatch," before the release of ADP data, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged was 95.2%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut was 4.8%. After the release of ADP and initial jobless claims data, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged slightly decreased to 93.1%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut increased to 6.9%. Although the possibility of a rate cut has increased after the data release, the probability of keeping rates unchanged still dominates.
Ace Hot Topic Analysis
Analysis
The Federal Reserve is highly likely to keep interest rates unchanged in January. According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 95.2% before the release of ADP data, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut was only 4.8%. After the release of ADP and initial jobless claims data, the probability of keeping rates unchanged slightly decreased to 93.1%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut increased to 6.9%. Although the market's expectation of a rate cut has increased after the data release, overall, the Fed is still very likely to keep interest rates unchanged in January. At the same time, the market is also divided on the Fed's monetary policy direction in the coming months. The probability of keeping the current interest rate unchanged by March is 58.6%, while the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 38.8%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 2.6%. This indicates that the market expects the Fed to adopt a more cautious monetary policy in the coming months, but specific actions will still depend on economic data and inflation.
Public Sentiment · Discussion Word Cloud
Public Sentiment
Discussion Word Cloud
Classic Views
The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in January is very high, currently reaching 93.1%,
The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in March with a higher probability, with a 38.8% probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points.
The possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in January is relatively small, with a probability of only 6.9% for a rate cut of 25 basis points.
The market is divided on the Fed's future policy direction, with some believing that the Fed may cut interest rates in March, while others believe that the Fed may keep interest rates unchanged.