#The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged in January.#
Hot Topic Overview
Overview
The Federal Reserve is highly likely to keep interest rates unchanged in January. According to CME's "FedWatch," before the release of ADP data, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged was 95.2%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut was 4.8%. After the release of ADP and initial jobless claims data, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged fell slightly to 93.1%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut rose to 6.9%. Although the possibility of a rate cut increased after the data release, the probability of keeping rates unchanged still dominates.
Ace Hot Topic Analysis
Analysis
The Federal Reserve is highly likely to keep interest rates unchanged at its January meeting. According to CME's "FedWatch," before the release of ADP data, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged was 95.2%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut was only 4.8%. After the release of ADP and initial jobless claims data, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged slightly decreased to 93.1%, the possibility of a rate cut remained low, with a 25 basis point rate cut probability of 6.9%. This suggests that despite recent weak economic data, the Fed is still inclined to keep rates unchanged and observe further economic developments. The market expects a higher probability of a rate cut at the March meeting, with a 38.8% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut and a 2.6% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut.
Public Sentiment · Discussion Word Cloud
Public Sentiment
Discussion Word Cloud
Classic Views
The Federal Reserve is highly likely to keep interest rates unchanged in January, with a probability of 93.1% at present.
The market expects the Fed to cut rates in March, with a probability of 38.8% for a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points.
The likelihood of the Fed cutting rates is relatively low, with a probability of only 6.9% for a 25 basis point cut.
The market is divided on the Fed's future policy direction, with some believing that the Fed may cut rates in March.