#The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged in January.#
Hot Topic Overview
Overview
The Federal Reserve is highly likely to keep interest rates unchanged in January. According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 95.2% before the release of ADP data, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut was 4.8%. After the release of ADP and initial jobless claims data, the probability of keeping rates unchanged fell to 93.1%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut rose to 6.9%. Although the probability of a rate cut increased after the data release, the likelihood of keeping rates unchanged still dominates.
Ace Hot Topic Analysis
Analysis
The Federal Reserve is highly likely to keep interest rates unchanged at its January policy meeting. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, before the release of ADP data, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in January was 95.2%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut was only 4.8%. After the release of ADP and initial jobless claims data, while the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in January slightly decreased to 93.1%, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut only increased to 6.9%. This means that the market generally expects the Fed to remain on hold at its January meeting and not change its interest rate policy. Although the possibility of a rate cut in the coming months has increased, the market currently favors the Fed keeping rates stable in the short term to observe economic data and inflation trends.
Public Sentiment · Discussion Word Cloud
Public Sentiment
Discussion Word Cloud
Classic Views
The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in January is very high, currently at 93.1%,
The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates at its March meeting, with a 38.8% probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points.
The possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates is relatively low, with a probability of only 6.9% for a 25 basis point cut.
The market is divided on the Fed's future policy direction, with some believing the Fed will cut rates at its March meeting, while others believe the Fed will keep rates unchanged.