#The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged in January.#

The Federal Reserve is highly likely to keep interest rates unchanged in January. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, before the release of the ADP data, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged was 95.2%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut was only 4.8%. Even after the release of the ADP and initial jobless claims data, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged remained high at 93.1%, with the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut only at 6.9%. This indicates that the market widely expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at its January meeting and believes that the possibility of a rate cut is low. Despite this, there is still divergence in market expectations for future interest rate movements. By March, the probability of keeping current interest rates unchanged is 58.6%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 38.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 2.6%. This suggests that the market believes there is still a possibility of the Fed cutting rates in the coming months, but the magnitude and timing of the rate cut remain uncertain.