#The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged in January.#
Hot Topic Overview
Overview
The Federal Reserve is highly likely to keep interest rates unchanged in January. According to CME's "FedWatch," before the release of ADP data, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in January was 95.2%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut was 4.8%. After the release of ADP and initial jobless claims data, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in January fell slightly to 93.1%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut rose to 6.9%. Although the possibility of a rate cut increased after the data release, the probability of keeping rates unchanged still dominates.
Ace Hot Topic Analysis
Analysis
The Federal Reserve is highly likely to keep interest rates unchanged at its January policy meeting. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, before the release of the ADP data, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in January was 95.2%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut was only 4.8%. Although the probability of keeping rates unchanged fell slightly to 93.1% after the release of the ADP and initial jobless claims data, the possibility of a rate cut remains low. This suggests that the market widely expects the Fed to adopt a wait-and-see approach at its January meeting and not take immediate action to cut rates. While the possibility of a rate cut at the March meeting has increased, the market currently still believes that the Fed will continue to keep rates unchanged and observe changes in economic data.
Public Sentiment · Discussion Word Cloud
Public Sentiment
Discussion Word Cloud
Classic Views
The Federal Reserve is highly likely to keep interest rates unchanged in January, with the probability currently at 93.1%.
The market expects the Fed to cut rates in March, with a 38.8% probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points.
The market is divided on the Fed's future monetary policy direction.
Some market participants believe the Fed may cut rates in March, while others believe the Fed may keep rates unchanged.
After the release of ADP and initial jobless claims data, the market's probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in January has declined.