#The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged in January.#
Hot Topic Overview
Overview
The odds of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in January are extremely high, currently estimated at 93.1% by the market. While recent ADP and initial jobless claims data have slightly impacted market expectations, the probability of the Fed holding rates steady remains above 90%. The market also expects a higher likelihood of a rate cut in March, but the cumulative probability of a rate cut remains low for now.
Ace Hot Topic Analysis
Analysis
The Federal Reserve is highly likely to keep interest rates unchanged at its January policy meeting. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, before the release of the ADP data, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in January was 95.2%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut was only 4.8%. After the release of the ADP and initial jobless claims data, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged slightly decreased to 93.1%, the possibility of a rate cut remained low, with a 25 basis point rate cut probability of 6.9%. This indicates that the market generally expects the Fed to remain on hold at its January meeting and continue to monitor economic data. Despite this, there is still divergence in market expectations for future rate movements. The probability of keeping rates unchanged in March is 58.6%, while the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 38.8%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 2.6%. This suggests that the market believes the Fed may begin to cut rates in the coming months, but the magnitude and timing of rate cuts remain uncertain.
Public Sentiment · Discussion Word Cloud
Public Sentiment
Discussion Word Cloud
Classic Views
The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in January is very high, currently at 93.1%,
The market expects the Fed to cut rates in March, but the cut may be small.
After the release of ADP and initial jobless claims data, the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut has risen.
CME's "Fed Watch" data shows that market expectations for Fed monetary policy are volatile.