#The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged in January.#

The Federal Reserve is highly likely to keep interest rates unchanged at its January meeting. According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of the Fed holding rates steady was 95.2% before the release of the ADP data, with only a 4.8% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut. After the release of the ADP and initial jobless claims data, while the probability of holding rates unchanged slightly decreased to 93.1%, the possibility of a rate cut remained low, with a 6.9% chance of a 25 basis point cut. This suggests that despite recent economic data showing a cooling of inflation, the Fed remains inclined to be cautious and continue to monitor economic developments. It is noteworthy that market expectations for a rate cut at the March meeting have increased, with a 38.8% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut and a 2.6% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut. This indicates that the market believes the Fed may begin cutting rates in the coming months, but the possibility of holding rates unchanged remains greater for now.