#The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged in January.#
Hot Topic Overview
Overview
The Fed is highly likely to keep interest rates unchanged in January, with the market currently expecting a 93.1% probability of a hold and a 6.9% probability of a 25 basis point cut. This expectation was formed after the release of ADP and initial jobless claims data, which previously saw a 95.2% probability of a hold. Despite this, the market still expects a higher probability of a rate cut in March, with a 38.8% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut and a 2.6% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut.
Ace Hot Topic Analysis
Analysis
The Federal Reserve is highly likely to keep interest rates unchanged in January. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, before the release of ADP data, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in January was 95.2%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut was 4.8%. After the release of ADP and initial jobless claims data, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in January fell slightly to 93.1%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut rose to 6.9%. Although market expectations for a Fed rate cut have risen after the data release, overall, the market still believes that the Fed is more likely to keep rates unchanged in January. This suggests that the market believes that current economic conditions do not yet warrant a Fed rate cut, and the Fed may need more data to assess the economic situation and decide whether to adjust monetary policy.
Public Sentiment · Discussion Word Cloud
Public Sentiment
Discussion Word Cloud
Classic Views
The Federal Reserve is highly likely to keep interest rates unchanged in January, currently at 93.1%, the market expects the Fed to cut rates in March, with a 38.8% probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points, the possibility of the Fed cutting rates by 50 basis points is small, currently at 2.6%, after the release of ADP and initial jobless claims data, the market's expectation of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in January has declined somewhat