#The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged in January.#
Hot Topic Overview
Overview
The Federal Reserve is highly likely to keep interest rates unchanged at its January policy meeting. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, before the release of ADP data, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged was 95.2%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut was 4.8%. After the release of ADP and initial jobless claims data, the probability of keeping rates unchanged fell slightly to 93.1%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut rose to 6.9%. Although the possibility of a rate cut increased after the data release, the probability of keeping rates unchanged still dominates.
Ace Hot Topic Analysis
Analysis
The Federal Reserve is highly likely to keep interest rates unchanged at its January meeting. According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of the Fed holding rates steady was 95.2% before the release of ADP data, with only a 4.8% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut. After the release of ADP and initial jobless claims data, while the probability of holding rates unchanged slightly decreased to 93.1%, the possibility of a rate cut remains low, with a 6.9% chance of a 25 basis point cut. This indicates that the market widely expects the Fed to remain on hold at its January meeting and continue to monitor economic data. Although market expectations for a rate cut in March have risen, for now, the Fed is most likely to keep rates unchanged at its January meeting.
Public Sentiment · Discussion Word Cloud
Public Sentiment
Discussion Word Cloud
Classic Views
The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in January is very high, currently exceeding 90%,
The market expects the Fed to cut rates in March, but the cut may not be large.
After the release of ADP and initial jobless claims data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in January has declined.
The market is divided on the Fed's future monetary policy direction, with some believing the Fed may cut rates while others believe the Fed may keep rates unchanged.