The French whale betting on Trump's victory has risen $47.8 million
Nov 07, 2024 16:14
According to BlockBeats, on November 8th, according to lookonchain monitoring, the French whale who bet on Trump's victory has gained $47.8 million. This "whale" is a French billionaire who has worked as a trader in multiple banks. This summer, he began using his mathematical expertise to analyze US public opinion polls.
On August 3rd, he began withdrawing USDC from Kraken to place bets on Polymarket. He said that his bet is essentially a bet on the accuracy of public opinion survey data. He believes that the polls exaggerated Harris' approval rating and failed to explain the 'shy Trump voter effect'. He explained that Trump supporters either don't want to tell pollsters that they support the former president, or they simply don't want to participate in the polls.
He commissioned a large public opinion survey agency to conduct surveys using both neighbor opinion surveys and traditional public opinion survey methods. These polls show that when respondents were asked who their neighbors would vote for, Harris' approval rating decreased by several percentage points compared to direct inquiry.
Therefore, starting from October 2nd, he created three more accounts (Theo4, PrincesCaro, and Michie) to continue increasing his bets on Trump. Between October 2nd and November 5th, he withdrew a total of 42 million USDCs from Kraken to bet on Trump's victory in the election, ultimately achieving a floating profit of $47.8 million.
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