QCP Capital: Bitcoin rebound breaks through critical range, Federal Reserve cuts interest rates and US election become key factors for the future

BlockBeats News: On August 24th, QCP Capital's latest report stated that Bitcoin has finally experienced the long-awaited rebound. It seems that Powell's speech at Jackson Hole became a catalyst for breaking through the $58000 to $62000 range. The September interest rate cut has been confirmed, but the magnitude of the cut has not been specified, so the employment data for August will be crucial. If there is a 25 basis point interest rate cut, it may be good news; If the interest rate is cut by 50 basis points, it may indicate that the Federal Reserve is taking emergency action to prevent the economy from stagnating. Last night's rebound was mainly driven by the spot market, as funding rates remained stable. However, if the support level of $62000 is maintained and as the summer vacation approaches its end, we should expect an increase in leveraged long positions. In terms of options trading, we have seen an increase in top holdings. Prior to Powell's speech, approximately 600 call options ranging from $62500 to $63000 (now in real value) were purchased. Even in the more forward months of December and March, investors continued to increase their long positions by $80000 to $85000. BTC has steadily returned to the range of $61000 to $70000, with selling supply gradually decreasing and spot ETFs experiencing net inflows in 10 out of the past 12 days. Similar to last night's situation, the cryptocurrency market seems to be looking for an opportunity to break through this bullish flag pattern that has lasted for months. Although Nvidia's financial report next week and the upcoming September interest rate cut are significant, we believe that the spot market will fluctuate within this range until the fourth quarter. We still believe that the seasonal factors of the bull market accompanying the US presidential election may serve as a catalyst for setting a new historical high.