Raoul Pal
Raoul Pal|Apr 24, 2025 14:00
New Journey Man episode with my dear friend @agurevich23—please enjoy! 00:00 – Welcome to The Journeyman 01:12 – Meet Alex Gurevich 02:08 – Alex’s Macro Framework 04:47 – Five Key Forces Driving Markets 07:00 – Rate Cuts & Central Bank Cycles 08:18 – Fiscal Dominance & Inflation Risks 09:37 – Demographics and Deflation 10:07 – Geopolitics and Trade Shifts 12:32 – The Rise of the Singularity 14:05 – Why Rates Remain Sticky 16:17 – Tariffs and the Bond Market 18:03 – Basel, Regulation & Forced Buying 20:26 – Stocks, Bonds & Mispriced Narratives 22:45 – Why Crises Always End in Liquidity 25:15 – 2022’s Puzzle: Real Rates & Liquidity 27:08 – Will the Fed Cut Soon? 28:37 – Favorite Macro Trades 30:25 – Currency Plays: Yen & Yuan 32:18 – Gold, Silver & Hard Assets 35:16 – Patience in Commodities 36:08 – Bitcoin, Crypto & Long-Term Views 37:00 – Copper & Industrial Demand 38:14 – Bearish on Equities… For Now 41:03 – Crises Create Opportunity 43:01 – The Buy-the-Dip Mindset 44:48 – The AI Singularity is Here 47:11 – Kurzweil Was Right 49:21 – End of the Exponential Age 51:14 – Energy as the True Constraint 55:15 – Can AI Solve Its Energy Crisis? 58:15 – Kardashev Scale & Solar Limits 01:02:37 – What Happens to the Economy? 01:04:34 – UBI and the End of Work 01:06:53 – Energy as the New Macro Constraint 01:07:29 – Why 2030 Could Be a Turning Point 01:10:12 – Can AI Run a Macro Fund? 01:14:29 – A Future Dominated by AGI 01:16:13 – This Changes Everything 01:18:44 – Final Thoughts & Takeaways
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