TraderS | 缺德道人
TraderS | 缺德道人|Apr 24, 2025 08:31
News should be read together, and the current situation is actually quite clear, just like the united front and horizontal front during the Warring States period. The stronger the United States is Qin, and the weaker China is Zhao. Although there is a gap between the two countries, it is not insurmountable. At this time, the State of Zhao must not negotiate alone with the State of Qin behind the backs of the other five countries. Once there is a private conversation, countries around the world will suspect that China is secretly compromising and preparing to divide countries with the United States first. This way, there is not much trust in the united front, and the newly formed united front will collapse instantly. The pressure from the United States and abroad is also huge. The original obvious advantage is that Trump's real anger has been released after a series of eight fists, so it is necessary to constantly release fake news and play around to try to confuse the opponent. But this kind of childish political maneuvering is not enough to be seen worldwide. Now it's like the situation before the Chongqing negotiations. Jiang invited Mao to negotiate in Chongqing. If he didn't go, it would be morally wrong, and if he did, it would be life-threatening. But no matter what, we must always maintain an attitude of wanting peace talks verbally, and we cannot blame the blame of refusing peace talks for destroying them. But the premise of the peace talks is also very simple. Trump needs to roll back everything before he came to power on 1.20. First, show sincerity and restore the negative trust score. The profit and loss are the same. Since January 20, the price of Big Cake has fallen since 109 because the price of Trump 2.0 is completely opposite to that before he came to power. 1. From the moment the 2.3 tariff stick was lifted only against Canada and Mexico, it fell below the 100000 mark Upon reaching 91, immediately deny and postpone the rebound to 102 for 30 days 2. Continuing to threaten tariffs on February 28th led to a drop to 78, and then on March 2nd, announcing a 30 day suspension before rebounding to 95 3. From the market panic, where the overall decline remained at 84, the market believed that the stored value attribute played a role, to the sudden escalation of the tariff war, where the equivalent price increase reached a peak of 125% at 74, and then to the market believing that high tariffs could not be achieved before starting to rebound, 4. Finally, after the market believed that the tariff war had eased and did not threaten Powell, it began to rebound significantly to 946. The Trump family has made a lot of money in the middle, relying on the extreme pressure of Trump to create fluctuations So the following: It is not surprising that China has never engaged in any economic or trade negotiations with the United States We can even predict: 6. The United States expresses its intention to make greater concessions to facilitate negotiations 7. China does not accept such insincere concessions from the United States 8. The US has lowered the 245% tariff previously imposed on needle syringes 9. The United States imposes sanctions on China's chip industry .... In a word, the two countries are mixed with structural, ideological, national and class contradictions. They will not be solved in 3-4 weeks as Trump said, nor in 2-3 years as Besant said. They must be fighting and talking. Therefore, under the situation that the general trend has not changed, they can only act as the "Trump band" as mentioned above. There is no need to worry about it and wait for the next opportunity. The future trend of the cake will not only include Trump's policy uncertainty, but also the characteristics of competition with gold. It will maintain a volatile market for a long time
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