Those who say Trump lost the tariff war don't know whether they have any economic knowledge Tariff war The United States is difficult before easy, while China is easy before difficult U.S.A: Difficulty with consumers first, difficulty with the stock market, long-term industry squeezing out of China, long-term US dollar hegemony (see my previous stablecoin tweet) With the outflow of China's industrial chain and the spontaneous adjustment of the supply chain, consumers and the stock market will feel weaker and weaker Discomfort is short-term And the tariff control valve is in my own hands, so if it's too uncomfortable, I'll lower it China: At first, the physical sensation may not be strong, but as long as tariffs do not return to the starting point (which is almost impossible), industries will gradually flow out and unemployment will gradually increase These are irreversible long-term effects Some may even trigger deeper chain reactions Moreover, the regulating valve of tariffs is uncontrollable and can only endure discomfort