财经少华
财经少华|Apr 23, 2025 12:37
Bitcoin: Safe haven asset or risky asset? On April 22, 2025, traditional safe haven assets such as gold, Japanese yen, and Swiss franc fell back due to the fading of safe haven sentiment, while Bitcoin surged 7% to $93663 and approached $94453 the next day. The three major stock indexes in the US rose by over 2.5%, the US dollar index rose, and gold fell to $3411 per ounce. The cryptocurrency market is heating up, with Ethereum rising by over 10%. The logic of Bitcoin's rise Enhanced risk aversion attribute: The US dollar credit crisis: The proportion of US dollar foreign exchange reserves has dropped to 58%, and de dollarization has driven up demand for Bitcoin. Economic stagflation risk: The US PMI is sluggish, with a core CPI of 2.4%, and funds are shifting from US stocks to Bitcoin. Global reserve demand: By 2024, global gold reserves will increase to 4974 tons, and the demand for Bitcoin as "digital gold" will rise. Policy benefits: Trump supports cryptocurrency and stated on April 22 that he will not dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. SEC's new chairman Paul Atkins (who took office on April 21) is pro crypto and is expected to bring loose regulation. Market dynamics: Bitcoin has decoupled from the US stock market and strengthened its negative correlation with the US dollar, attracting investors. conclusion Bitcoin exhibits safe haven properties, but its high volatility and dependence on the US economy make its position unstable. Attention should be paid to policies, economic indicators, and institutional trends.
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