Play the ninth bullet of the US stock market! 12 macroeconomic indicators that must be understood in the US stock market These indicators directly affect how funds flow, how the financial cycle goes, whether the Federal Reserve raises or lowers interest rates, and the liquidity of the US stock/cryptocurrency market. 🟨 The impact of economic data on the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike and cut policies and the market 1. Employment data (non farm payroll, unemployment rate, number of initial jobless claims) As expected: If the data is consistent with expectations and the market reaction is relatively stable, the Federal Reserve will maintain its original policy orientation. Exceeding expectations: If employment growth is strong (such as significantly exceeding expectations for non-agricultural sectors and a decrease in unemployment rates), the Federal Reserve may consider raising interest rates to curb inflation, which is unfavorable for the bond market (with rising bond yields and falling bond prices), US stocks, and cryptocurrencies. Not as expected: When employment data is poor (such as an increase in unemployment), the market may expect the Federal Reserve to loosen, which will benefit the bond market (with rising bond prices), US stocks, and cryptocurrencies. 2. Inflation data (CPI, PCE) As expected: If inflation data is consistent with expectations and the Federal Reserve maintains policy unchanged, the market response will be flat. Exceeding expectations: When inflation is too high, the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates to curb inflationary pressures, which is unfavorable for the bond market (rising yields) and for the US stock market and cryptocurrency. Not as expected: When inflation is lower than expected, the Federal Reserve may maintain or relax monetary policy, which is beneficial for the US stock market and cryptocurrency. 3. GDP growth rate As expected: Market sentiment is relatively stable, with weak reactions from the US stock market, cryptocurrency market, and bond market. Exceeding expectations: Rapid economic growth may lead to rising inflation, and the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates, which is negative for US stocks and cryptocurrencies. Not as expected: GDP slowdown may prompt loose policies, benefiting US stocks and cryptocurrencies. 4. PMI, retail sales, etc As expected: The market remains in its current state with minimal volatility. Exceeding expectations: Strong data may prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, which is not conducive to US stocks and cryptocurrencies. Not as expected: Weak data may lead to loose expectations, benefiting the bond market, US stocks, and cryptocurrencies. 🟨 Listed by importance and publication cycle as follows: 1. Non farm employment data (NFP) Importance: Very important. Publication period: The first Friday of each month. Impact: Reflecting the health of the US job market, directly affecting the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and market expectations. 2. Unemployment rate Importance: Very important. Publication period: The first Friday of each month, synchronized with non farm payroll data. Impact: An increase in unemployment rate may prompt the Federal Reserve to adopt loose policies, while a decrease in unemployment rate may prompt the Federal Reserve to consider tightening policies. 3. Number of initial jobless claims Importance: High. Publication cycle: Every Thursday. Impact: For a more real-time employment market indicator, a significant increase in the number of people may indicate economic weakness, while the opposite indicates a strong labor market. 4. Consumer Price Index (CPI) Importance: Very important. Publication period: Mid month. Impact: CPI is an important indicator for measuring inflation. High inflation may prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, while low inflation may prompt interest rate cuts or loose policies. 5. Core CPI (CPI excluding energy and food prices) Importance: Very important. Publication period: Mid month. Impact: A more robust measure of inflation than the overall CPI, the market pays special attention to the Federal Reserve's reference in monetary policy. 6. Producer Price Index (PPI) Importance: High. Publication cycle: Mid month, immediately following CPI. Impact: Reflecting wholesale prices of goods and services, an increase in PPI may indicate future inflationary pressures and affect the policy direction of the Federal Reserve. 7. Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) Importance: Very important. Publication period: Late of each month. Impact: The inflation indicator that the Federal Reserve is most concerned about, high PCE promotes tightening policies, while low PCE helps with easing. 8. GDP growth rate Importance: Very important. Announcement cycle: Initial, revised, and final values are announced quarterly. Impact: Slowing GDP growth may prompt the Federal Reserve to adopt loose policies, while excessive growth may lead to tightening policies. 9. ISM Manufacturing and Non Manufacturing PMI Importance: High. Publication cycle: At the beginning of each month. Impact: A PMI index greater than 50 indicates economic expansion, while a PMI index less than 50 indicates contraction, reflecting the health of the economy. 10. Retail sales data Importance: High. Publication period: Mid month. Impact: Strong retail data means strong consumer spending, which may prompt interest rate hikes; Weak retail data may prompt loose policies. 11. Real estate market data (new house construction, existing house sales, etc.) Importance: Medium. Publication period: Mid month. Impact: Reflecting the health of the real estate market, which is an interest rate sensitive industry, strong data may lead to tightening expectations. 12. University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index Importance: Medium. Publication period: Late of each month. Impact: Reflecting consumer confidence, high confidence may indicate consumption growth, while low confidence may lead to expectations of economic weakness.