
Rocky|Apr 19, 2025 15:00
Read a good book every week called 'The Wave Cycle Theory'
This is a book that I cannot put down. Life and wealth depend on the waves of health, not on human will. As you grow older, you will believe in fate, one life, two fortunes, and three feng shui, which is absolutely true. When you stand on an upward escalator, you are exceptionally likely to succeed, while when you walk on a downward escalator, you may be exhausted but not necessarily have good results. This is the power of cycles!
As a professional investor, revisiting Zhou Jintao's theory on the Kangbo cycle has given me a deeper understanding and insight into my current and future asset allocation strategies. Especially at the critical time point of 2025, understanding the endpoint and starting point of the cycle is crucial for wealth transition.
one ️⃣ How do I understand 'life and wealth depend on Kangbo'
Zhou Jintao proposed the idea of "making a fortune in life depends on health waves". In my investment logic and framework, this is a way of thinking that follows the trend, and even pigs can fly in the wind. Individual abilities are certainly important, but in the context of macro cycles, even the most advanced individual and team abilities may fail to yield results or even be completely wiped out in countercyclical situations. And those who follow the trend, even if it's just a simple asset allocation, can still ride the wind.
Looking back on the past twenty years:
In 2008, I vividly remember during the financial crisis, both the real estate and stock markets plummeted, and those who dared to take action received substantial returns within a few years.
In 2019, this was the low point in the previous Kangbo Depression cycle. At that time, I increased my allocation of core assets, including the US stock market BTC、 Technology stocks have proven to be a highly cost-effective window.
2027 is seen as the bottom of the fifth Kangbo Depression and the beginning of a recovery. According to cyclical theory, 2026-2027 will be an excellent entry opportunity. At this moment, choosing to lie flat and recharge in 2025 may be the best strategy, and staying still is also a wisdom.
two ️⃣ The nested structure of economic cycles is the logical basis for me to formulate medium - and long-term strategies
I often divide the decision-making logic of asset allocation into three levels, corresponding to three cycles:
1. Kangbo cycle (60 years): It determines my judgment on the main line of the times, such as whether digitalization and energy transformation have entered a period of recovery.
2. Juglar cycle (8-10 years): Guide me to judge the pace of industry rotation and sector switching.
3. Jiqin cycle (4-5 years): Provide medium to long-term basis for my position adjustment and trading behavior.
The best time to take action is when the resonance of the three cycles is superimposed; When the cycle direction is chaotic, I tend to defend and wait more.
three ️⃣ 2026-2027: Approaching the turning point of the cycle, waiting for the initial movement of the spring tide
If we follow Zhou Jintao's deduction, 2019-2027 will be the fifth Kangbo Depression period. Now we are approaching the threshold of history——
Global destocking is nearing its end, and the Federal Reserve may enter a cycle of interest rate cuts;
The dawn of the new technology wave (AI+, new energy, digital assets) is emerging;
Global industries and supply chains are undergoing restructuring, with real estate, manufacturing, and exports facing structural reorganization;
All these signs make me believe that 2026-2027 is likely to be a three period resonance point of Kangbo bottom+mid wave up+short wave reversal. Missing such an opportunity would be a once-in-a-decade regret.
four ️⃣ Current and future asset allocation strategies (with a focus on 2026-2027)
Based on cycle theory and current macro judgments, my strategy is as follows:
1. Stocks
Focus on the early growth cycle tracks: technology (AI chips, AI applications, intelligent manufacturing), green energy (hydrogen energy, nuclear energy, solar energy+energy storage).
The geographical selection leans towards US technology stocks, China, and emerging markets in Southeast Asia, making the valuation more attractive.
2. Gold
As a hedging tool against inflation, the decline of the US dollar, and geopolitical conflicts, it is still worth a moderate position allocation, especially in the context of gold reaching a historic high during 2025.
3. Digital assets
The Web3 market is brewing a new round of structural bull market, especially for BTC and infrastructure projects, which are worth a mid-term strategic layout.
Although not discussed in Zhou Jintao's book, I believe that digital assets may be an important "new variable" in the new phase of Kangbo's recovery.
4. Real estate
Still at the end of adjustment, waiting for confirmation of policy and monetary inflection points. Priority should be given to core cities and self occupied logic, and investment properties should be approached with caution.
Structural repairs may occur between 2026-2028.
five ️⃣ My underlying beliefs: following the cycle, controlling risks, and waiting for the right time
The most shocking sentence from Zhou Jintao to me is: "Doing the right thing at the right time is the greatest effort
As an investor, I increasingly believe that the accumulation of wealth is an endurance race across cycles, not a speculation of passing the buck.
The years 2026-2027 may be the beginning of the 'end of hardship and return of happiness'. After a decade of macro deleveraging, pandemic disruptions, and geopolitical conflicts, a new round of recovery for COVID-19 may be quietly unfolding.
Our team will continue to increase our research and observation on the "new cycle", and prepare the sails on the wind of the cycle to set sail with you. 🧐
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