Orange Evening Interpretation 4.17 The cryptocurrency market is tough, it keeps up with the rise and not the fall of the US stock market! Last night, Powell, an old man, directly shouted at the US stock market. Although the hawks were expected, they did not expect Powell to be so rigid. It directly said that the Federal Reserve would not be affected by political pressure. Don't expect the Federal Reserve to sell the bailout. Trump's policy is changing every day. This can be considered a complete confrontation with Lao Chuan, right It may also be a response to Trump and Secretary of the Treasury Besant who are working overtime to interview new candidates for the chairman of the Federal Reserve, and Trump's pressure on the Supreme Court to take back the power to dismiss senior federal officials. These two obvious counterattacks against their own operations. At this time, the more tough Bauer is, the more support he can get. Just like Gary Gensler, the former chairman of the SEC, he has done everything before. Even though he voted for Bitcoin and Ethereum's ETFs later, the entire currency market cannot accommodate him. Now, under Trump's bottomless issuing and insider harvesting, everyone is starting to do it miss gary and biden. However, Trump's introduction of the new chairman of the Federal Reserve is good for the market, because no matter who the new chairman is, he must first be loyal to Trump. In terms of monetary policy, Trump must be super loose, and the Federal Reserve may usher in a more radical release than in the Bernanke era. This is super good for both the U.S. stock market and the currency market. Considering that Powell's term of office ends on May 15, 2026, and he joined the Powell administration this year to cut interest rates four times, then the interest rate cut next year is likely to double, more than eight times, that is, 200 basis points, which means that by the end of 2026, the U.S. interest rate will fall to 1.25% -1.5%. The interest rate level can predict that both the US stock market and the currency market will take off. Then we talked about Trump's tariff negotiation. Last night, Trump personally participated in the negotiation with Japan. After the meeting, the two sides expressed opposite views on the negotiation results. Trump felt that there was significant progress. The Japanese Prime Minister responded that there was no progress, and it was difficult to reduce taxes later. It seems that Trump still maintains a tough policy towards the outside world. It may be that the price of US debt has rebounded. Trump thinks it can do it again. The negotiations between the EU and Japan are fruitless. It seems that the tariff crisis will continue for some time, and Trump's appetite is a little bigger than expected. This may be related to Trump's failure to realize its previous boasting. Previously, Chuanzi said that the United States could make a net profit of $2 billion a day through tariffs. However, the latest customs report came out last night, saying that since the implementation of the tariff policy on April 5, the total revenue has been only $500 million, which is quite embarrassing for Trump; Then there is the progress of the trade war with China, which is still ongoing on both sides. Yesterday, a US spokesperson stated that China strongly relies on the United States and needs to take the initiative to negotiate. In the eyes of the United States, China is no different from other countries, except on a slightly larger scale. Currently, Chuanzi is implementing the US first principle globally. In terms of currency market, Big Cake performed well, much better than American stocks. However, last night ETF saw a capital outflow of 170 million dollars, ending two consecutive days of net inflows. However, last night there were some macro advantages. For example, Powell, despite his hawkish performance, praised encryption. He said that encryption is becoming the mainstream, and a good and stable legal framework needs to be established. It is expected that the Trump government would have been supporting encryption. The policies that have been issued include SEC/CFTC personnel adjustment, SAB 121 cancellation, Bitcoin reserve plan, and the improvement of the global regulatory framework, such as the regulatory optimization of the EU MiCA, Japan, and South Korea. In a word, in policy, In the direction, it is enough to support the currency market to open the second half of the bull market; In terms of Ethereum, ETH/BTC has started to rebound, but ETFs still maintain capital outflows, indicating that it is still difficult for Ethereum to learn from the big pie as a value storage asset. A few days ago, staking ETFs was also postponed by the SEC. However, this will eventually pass, as BlackRock has not personally exited the market yet. BlackRock still has a high positioning for Ethereum and has a clear statement that distinguishes ETH, BTC, and other altcoins. Although Ethereum has been struggling in this bull market, it is still the one leading the public chain. Sol, BNB, Base, Sui, and others may have seized some of the market, but Ethereum is still the strongest in terms of round centralization, consensus level, and security. Holding spot is still the best option. It is entirely possible to wait for Ethereum's replenishment; In terms of shanzhai, there are still golden dogs jumping on the Sol chain. Last night, Defiant came out again, almost following the same path as RFC, which is initiated by the big V that Musk is concerned about. This wave is much faster than FRC, with a speed of 10m when it came out, and then pulling it to 25m after getting 1.5m. The only difference now is whether Musk will mention this. If it is mentioned, there is a hope of reaching the 100m level; There is also a golden dog on the base chain, which refers to the official tweet "Base is for everyone", but with a link pointing to the Zora platform. There is a Base is for everyone meme coin created on this platform, and everyone must think that this is the official meme. It instantly pulled up to 17m, and then the coin plummeted by 95% because Base denies that it is an official token. However, this project was promoted by the base official, and this morning everyone got confused and started to p up. The highest market value soared to 22m, and now it has dropped back to 13m. There have been many projects that are officially released and then denied before, and they are all community driven in the end. However, this meaning is still quite good. It may take a few days of hype.