财经少华
财经少华|Apr 17, 2025 03:36
The Federal Reserve coldly extinguished the world's hope At a time when global investors are looking forward to a bailout, the Federal Reserve poured a bucket of cold water. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that he will wait for further clarification of the situation before considering adjusting his policy stance. Powell's speech came at a time when the US stock market was falling, and what was poured on the market was not just a "bucket of cold water", but even a "bucket of ice water": 1. I originally thought he would intervene to rescue the market, as his colleagues had changed their stance the day before to 'support earlier and greater interest rate cuts than previously expected'. Giving hope to the market and then letting it fade away is the scariest thing, it's better not to schedule this speech. 2. Between 'economy' and 'inflation', Powell chose the latter. Powell said that to some extent, the Fed's problem is like a football goalkeeper dealing with an opponent's penalty kick. We must decide whether to turn right and focus on inflation, or turn left and focus on slowing growth. Powell also said that the impact of tariffs on inflation may be more lasting and may at least bring temporary inflation. It is necessary to ensure that price increases do not lead to sustained inflation, and the Federal Reserve has an obligation to maintain stable inflation expectations. It is evident that Powell has decided to prioritize a 'right sweep'. 3. When asked if there are "Federal Reserve put options" in the stock market, his answer was "no". Don't expect the Federal Reserve to get out of trouble. 4. Powell also expressed what the market has always been concerned about - that tariffs may lead to slower economic growth and more stubborn inflation - and this statement from the Federal Reserve Chairman confirms all of these facts. 5. The reason why the Federal Reserve chose not to rescue the market is not because it "doesn't want to", but because it "can't" and lacks flexibility to respond, because Trump's tariffs exceeded the Fed's previous highest estimate. They simply cannot cut interest rates when inflation is rising, considering that the inflation rate is already very high, and during this period, the risk of inflation expectations getting out of control is very real. Powell concluded his speech by quoting a line from the movie "Spring is Not a Reading Day": "Life passes by quickly
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