Fundamental analysis of Filcoin, whether the Fil value is worth buying and at what price it is worth buying. Today, my neighbor, who is also a well-known FIL miner, sent me their own summary of FIL data (Figure 3). I suddenly had a better understanding of FIL's current ideas, which led to this tweet. At the same time, I would like to thank the Huaao team for providing the data, and thank @ tktang88 (neighbor Kan Ge himself) @ Deshen888 @ Cryptoxx for providing a large amount of data and algorithm support during the article process. 1. FIL's price range From the most fundamental price perspective, on April 7th, FIL hit a historic low of $2.112, and then rebounded to $2.5 with the rise of the market. From the perspective of trading volume, it is higher than the average, and buying volume is the main factor. Then I pulled the weekly data and found that there were five times of buying and increasing volume in the weekly chart since 2022. When there was no buying volume, the price of FIL remained between $3 and $6 for nearly three years. Only when there was a significant bearish trend in the market, would FIL fall below $3. This also indicates that after three years of consolidation, investors expect the basic price of FIL to be around $3. This does not mean that FIL will not fall below $3, but rather that there is strong consensus and attractiveness around $3. This time, FIL fell to a new historical low mainly because of Trump's tariff policy. At this stage, let alone FIL, BTC is also falling, but the difference is from BTC, From the price trends of ETH and FIL, the trend of FIL and ETH will be more similar, that is, compared to BTC, the decline will be more severe, while the rebound will be weaker. This means that in the macro field, although FIL is a mining coin, consensus is not only determined by "computing power", but also greatly constrained by liquidity. In other words, FIL is more of a component of altcoins, even though it is a mining mechanism similar to POW. FIL is not POW, but spatiotemporal proof+POS. I calculated it myself as POW because it requires electricity and computing power, but in fact it is not. 2. Mining cost of FIL Of course, this is not just a brainstorm. From the computing power data of Filcoin, it can be seen that the effective computing power is starting to decline, active storage is decreasing, and effective utilization is decreasing. This indicates that some miners are starting to leave, and the main reason for leaving may be that the price of FIL has fallen below $3. And how much does FIL mining cost? I asked my neighbor, and generally speaking, if we don't include staking, the cost per FIL mining is around $1.6 based on the data center (electricity and internet fees)+hardware (depreciated in 540 days)+packaging. At present, for every 1 TB of computing power added, approximately 4 FILs need to be pledged, and the current output of 1TB is 0.0036 FILs. This means that in one lending cycle (540 days), the actual return on 1TB is 1.944 FILs, or even less than 2. It takes at least two and a half cycles to mine the pledged returns, so borrowing FILs for mining is definitely the most cost-effective. At present, the borrowing rate on Glif is 15% (provided that there are nodes first, and the maximum amount that can be borrowed is 75% of the node value). For 1TB, 4 FILs need to be borrowed, with a cost of 0.9 FILs (calculated based on 540 days). The price of FILs is currently $2.25 at $2.5. Based on the yield of 2 FILs generated from 1TB, the total cost of 1 FIL is: 1.6+2.5 * 0.9/2=approximately $2.725 If the previous FIL low price was $3, the total cost would be: 1.6+3 * 0.9/2=2.95 USD This price range happens to be the bottom of FIL, which is in line with our previous consensus and attractiveness around $3. Even when the price of FIL drops to $2.5, the mining cost of FIL is still around $2.7, making it very unprofitable to mine FIL. But is that really the case? 3. FIL miners and coin holders embrace each other for warmth Actually, it's not the case. As we mentioned earlier, the hardware cost of FIL is around $1.6 per TB. Therefore, if we can reduce the cost of staking FIL, we can lower the cost of mining. Using Glif's reception protocol is definitely not feasible, so we have a centralized lending method. The current common profit sharing scheme is 50:50, which means that half of the mined FIL is obtained by the mining site, usually by the borrower who provides collateral. If we calculate based on the actual profit of 2 FILs per TB, the mining site will receive 1 FIL and the borrower will receive 1 FIL. This way, the cost of FIL will be reduced to $1.6 (mining site) or $1.5 (pledger), and the cost and risk will be evenly distributed. Therefore, even a FIL of $2.5 will still have a profit. 4. Is there still room for FIL prices to decline? The first answer is yes, after all, it is not a good time for altcoins at present, and the overall liquidity is still insufficient. Even if the main funds end up buying "safe haven assets" such as BTC, there is still a possibility of BTC falling now. After all, the current situation is still dominated by tariffs and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and the essence is still the liquidity affected by monetary policy. So there is a possibility of a decline in the risk market before there is a change from "rebound" to "reversal", not to mention the "last drop" caused by the economic recession that has not yet passed. Therefore, if the mood is not good or there is an economic recession, then the decline of FIL is still very likely. However, from the perspective of the overall price fluctuation space, FIL has been in a trend of low volatility and repeated bottoming out for a long time, especially this time when it fell below the profit margin of borrowing. After driving away small miners, the rest of them basically do not use protocol borrowing, but more use centralized borrowing to reduce costs. The mining cycle of this part is 540 days, and the current utilization rate of GLIF's mining pool is 77.75%. If the utilization rate further declines, it will actually make FIL's price more stable. As for how much it can fall, it is difficult to calculate, but it can be known that there is a clear buying trend from the bottom of $3 to around $2.1, so I think around $2 is a good bottoming point. The rebound in price is either due to the narrative upgrade of FIL itself, for example, the last time I logged into UpBit, FIL was temporarily pulled up to around $3.5, but because the selling pressure was too great, it was quickly pushed back. 5. Summary Overall, the narrative prospects of FIL still depend on the development of the storage track itself. Currently, the practical application of FIL may still be relatively limited, but IPFS's distributed storage can provide a basic data reserve for the future "number one player" world. Moreover, the head of this track is still FIL, which does not mean that there will be no opportunities to rise in the future. However, for now, we still need to consider whether the narrative can be upgraded and whether there has been a macro shift. If not, FIL may be a choice for me to change positions (with lower declines and higher rebounds), rather than a bottom fishing choice.