Will there still be a knockoff season in this market? Content word count: 1200 Reading time: 1 minute Before answering this topic, we first need to understand four questions, and then everyone will have their own answer in their mind. 1. What is Shanzhai Season? 2. What are the basic conditions required for the formation of the knockoff season? 3. At which stage of BTC operation does the counterfeit season appear? 4. What are the differences between the nodes and current environment of the historical knockoff season? 1、 What is Shanzhai Season? This is the most direct and simple question, as the name suggests, it refers to the time period when the price of knockoff stocks rises, so it is called the knockoff season. It usually appears at the gap where funds rotate in various sectors. 2、 What are the basic conditions required for the formation of the knockoff season? 1. When a coin experiences a significant pullback and consolidates into a bullish structure, it may enter the intermediate stage of upward movement. 2. The market is booming, and there is a general FOMO mentality. 3. After the mainstream market pull is completed, there is sufficient idle capital flowing into the market. These three foundations are prerequisites for altcoin makers to dare to pull the market, in other words, whether the structure supports an upward trend and whether there is anyone willing to take over the market? Currently, it is evident that most of them do not possess it. 3、 At which stage of BTC operation does the counterfeit season appear? Generally speaking, mainstream currencies such as BTC are in the first tier, other public chains are in the second tier, and knockoffs are in the third tier. That is to say, it is the knockoff buying node. After BTC and other large cap currencies have finished buying, the market will start a sideways phase, and only when there is a surge of idle funds in the market will the market makers buy (some strong ones will link BTC's front and back foot buying). At present, even ETH, the mother of shanzhai, is sitting at the same table as EOS, and there is no way to talk about other tiers. 4、 What are the differences between the historical nodes of the knockoff season and the current market environment? 1. In the first few bull markets, the market size was small with a large amount of incremental funds, and the number of counterfeit coins was only a few hundred to a thousand. The sector rotation was clear, and most of the coins did not have contracts. Although it was also a storytelling, they were all planned with clear progress bars and benchmarks, more like achieving a career. 2. There are currently over 7000 counterfeit coins in the market that Alcoin has statistics on, including those that are not. The quantity exceeds 10000, and there is a clear situation of having value but no market. There is also no incremental capital, and most of the funds are diverted from the chain. Many of them come with contracts as soon as they are launched, without any rotation effect. Although they are also telling stories, they are all using pictures to talk about things, more like the CX gameplay in the previous market circle. 3. The current situation of shanzhai In this round of market trends, the knockoff season generally occurred from October 2023 to March 2024. Only some knockoffs followed suit in the October 2024 market, but more of them plummeted during BTC's sideways phase after June 2024 and did not reach new highs thereafter. As of now, even the strong knockoffs in the early stage have shown signs of fatigue, with the structure showing signs of bearish trend ahead of schedule. Even if there is further buying in the later stages, the price of the coin will not be high due to the first two stages of being trapped. Previously, the knockoffs were all about benchmarking against BTC and ETH, and there were also progress records on the progress bar; Most of the current knockoffs are more like CX coins in the previous market, mainly relying on KOLs to place orders. Summary: Asset prices will always play out different stories in ups and downs, and there will be fluctuations in counterfeit individual coins, but the original counterfeit season will not be simply repeated. To put it more bluntly, strong knockoffs will link the rise and fall of BTC across bull and bear markets, but there will not be a knockoff season of carving boats and seeking swords. Tip: There are only a few core parts of the above questions. If we delve into each topic, we can write a lot. I won't go into detail one by one. We are traders, not scholars, so there is no need to go into detail. Just have a general idea, and you can brainstorm the rest. For more ideas, please feel free to exchange opinions in the comment section. The previously strong knockoffs are now showing signs of fatigue, with a bearish structure ahead of schedule. Even if there is a further pullback, the first two stages of holding up the market will determine that the price of the coin will not be high. As expected, more than 75% of the progress of this round of market has already ended, and the next stage is the closing stage. Don't have too high expectations. Shanzhai coins are not impossible to play, we cannot have a one size fits all approach, but they need to have amplitude in the short term, and distinguish them from pure CX coins and air coins in the longer term. BTC