Nico asked a good question, tariffs are uncertain and slightly eliminated, but it is far from the point of reversal. The overall macro risk in the future lies in: 1. Policy level fluctuations and uncertainties: The policy level is undoubtedly the key. At the beginning of the year, we talked about the policy of Trump, which has the largest macro weight in 25 years. In the past two months, the market has also appreciated the impact of this volatile uncertainty on the market. The other day, he said that he was crazy and repeated. Last week, because of the pressure of treasury bond, the party, the gold owners and the team, he turned a little. Although I think he will correct too much in the near future, no one knows whether he will turn back in the future. 2. On the inflation level, there is a 90 day tariff exemption, but the benchmark tax rate of 10% still needs to be added. The inflation trend that will be driven afterwards can be seen in May and June. The good thing is that oil prices have dropped significantly recently, and the short-term inventory backlog in February and March due to concerns about tariffs and crazy rush to ship orders is a hedge against future tariff price increases. However, it is difficult to accurately grasp the magnitude of this impact. 3. From a fundamental perspective: As the US stock market officially enters its earnings season this week, special attention needs to be paid to whether tech giants will cut their capital expenditures after the major market adjustments in February and March. Previously, it was discussed that the growth rate of tech giants' capital expenditures will peak and fall in the second half of this year at the latest. AI storytelling needs to switch from the bottom layer of computing power and large models to the application layer. If we start cutting expenses now, other big companies will follow suit and have inertia. When AI applications have not yet exploded, this switch is prone to a shortage, further affecting overall market confidence. 4. From fundamentals to economic level In the past two months, the United States has experienced a transition from the resilience of its economy's "hard data" to the collapse of its "soft data". Hard data is an actual indicator of the economic situation, such as the PMI ppi、 Soft data in the labor market is based on expected data from surveys and statistics, such as consumer confidence index, business confidence index, inflation expectations, etc. The focus of this is on whether soft data will affect the behavior of economic entities, whether it will be transmitted to hard data, and how significant the impact is worth paying attention to. 5. Liquidity issues In one or two months, the TGA account of the Ministry of Finance will be depleted. Two days ago, the House of Representatives passed a budget bill to increase the debt ceiling by $5 trillion. It is highly likely that the Senate will pass it through the budget mediation process. This means that the Ministry of Finance will start issuing bonds on a large scale again in the future, and will have to extract liquidity from the market. The Federal Reserve's response to this is that it may temporarily suspend balance sheet tightening when the new debt ceiling is reached, but the risk of overall tightening of US dollar liquidity must be prevented. Unless the Federal Reserve launches various forms of balance sheet expansion when it sees risks after suspending the reduction of its balance sheet (the tool reserves in the Fed's toolbox are still abundant) 6. The longer-term impact lies in the reconstruction of global order and the issue of allies' confidence in the United States Last week, the US stock market fell, the US dollar fell, and US Treasury bonds also fell. There were faint signs of funds seeking refuge and retreat in the US dollar and US Treasury bonds. At a deeper level, various countries have concerns about whether the United States can still play a global leadership role in the future. Based on many current market indicators, it is still too early to draw a conclusion that "pan dollar liquidity" is in crisis and the safe asset cornerstone position of US bonds has collapsed. However, as a long-term potential risk that must be guarded against, it depends on the outcome of future tariff negotiations 1) From the perspective of the United States, in an ideal situation, the United States would truly be able to reach an agreement with its major trading partners, achieve the trade fortress that Besant wants, and form a tariff encirclement on the East. So the American exceptionalism will be reduced, but there will still be solid support 2) But it is also possible that the interests of various countries are difficult to reconcile and cannot be lowered to a unified level. If the United States fails to unite, the world will truly form an isolated island like division, and the era of chaos and struggle will truly come. In this case, the United States will really face the trust risk of the so-called safe assets from the US dollar to US bonds. Not all of the risks mentioned above are bound to occur, and some may be unfounded concerns. Macroeconomics is constantly changing, and what we can do is to respond to the situation in a timely manner. As investors, we have to be more flexible in the face of the current market.