Phyrex
Phyrex|Apr 12, 2025 21:39
The difficulty level of today's work has come down directly. It is still up to Trump to stir up nerves, but it is also expected. Just the day before yesterday, all the equivalent tariffs were suspended for 90 days. Everyone thought that when the Sino US trade war began, today Trump announced that there was no need to pay 10% of the basic tariff for mobile phones, computers and other spare parts. Even China's 125% retaliatory tariff was exempted. Of course, it also reserved 20% of the tariff for China because of fentanyl. It is always said that cryptocurrency is the first thing to suffer and benefit from Trump's enlarged moves on holidays. After all, cryptocurrency is operated for 7x24 hours. After the news, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have shown an upward trend. There should be many incentives for the opening of the US stock market on Monday. At least Apple has the opportunity to bounce back, which also shows that Trump's tariff policy is more about bargaining chips than about killing people. Yesterday, we also studied the issue of the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds. In addition to forcing the Federal Reserve, the rising yield is also very stressful for Trump. Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that Trump had to bail out the market by himself when the Federal Reserve was indifferent to the rise of 10-year yield. Trump made such a big battle by himself. Speaking of which, the only ones still being hit by tariffs are imported cars and spare parts, and there is also a possibility of negotiation and easing of tariff issues with China. In the coming period, tariffs may gradually release positive effects, which is consistent with our previous expectations. The tariffs on April 2nd are the worst version with almost no possibility of implementation, and the harm of tariffs will gradually decrease. But in addition to tariffs, there is still the economy that cannot be ignored, which has become a problem. If the economy is good, the Federal Reserve is not in a hurry to cut interest rates. If the economy is not good, the Fed's interest rate cut represents the possibility of an increase in recession. The economy is the next headache, and the key is to look at the GDP data released at the end of April, which will be even more important. If it is really the same as the calculation of GDP Now, which is -2.8%, the Federal Reserve will be in a dilemma. Back to Bitcoin's data, liquidity has declined significantly since the weekend, and trading volume and turnover rate have also declined significantly at the same time. This is something that happens every week. Because the latest tariff policy of Trump took place on the weekend, the reaction of the risk market is likely to wait until after Monday. Let's look at the reaction of the stock market and bond market on Monday. The main providers of weekend turnover are still short-term bargain hunters. Currently, the success rate of bottoming out at $83000 continues to rise, and the confidential chip area between $93000 and $98000 is also quite stable. This tweet is sponsored by @ ApeXProtocolCN | Dex With Apex
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