
qinbafrank|Apr 12, 2025 01:51
There are various interpretations regarding the malfunction of the US tariff system last night: some say that the US Customs was originally understaffed, and as soon as the 10% tariff was implemented, the workload increased significantly, and the system immediately couldn't withstand it; There are also customs systems controlled by institutional groups that do not cooperate with Trump's policies. Personally, I think the timing of this failure is just right. On Wednesday, the implementation of Trump's equivalent tariff was suspended, and the customs bonded system failed two days after the implementation of the benchmark tax rate of 10% and the punitive tariff on China. This is just right because:
1. Trump's suspension of tariffs on the United States is obviously under pressure from all aspects. The market, especially the treasury bond market, the core team, the gold owners and the party, hopes to ease market sentiment if it is postponed, or at least the market must be stabilized. The significance of the sudden suspension will be greatly reduced. However, it was obvious that the market did not stabilize yesterday, and treasury bond was still being sold.
So last night we talked about 'So theoretically, we should announce trade agreements with a few countries in the next one or two days, otherwise the water that is half boiled will easily cool down.' But if it takes time to reach trade agreements with a few countries, then we need to find other ways. At this point, the customs system malfunctioned in a timely manner.
2. The sudden "malfunction" of the customs system has led to the suspension of tariff data processing, which precisely gives key stakeholders - the clearing house, freight forwarding companies, the US Treasury Department, and customs - the opportunity to pause, re price, and restructure before any new tax rates are implemented.
By freezing tariff exemption tracking and reducing transparency on who gets exemptions and who doesn't, this provides some relatively quiet time (hours or days) for the US administration and Treasury to assess market reactions and intervene if necessary, without news headlines exposing their actions.
In this sense, the failure of the Shanghai Customs system is likely to be a preemptive firewall against liquidity crisis or geopolitical panic, rather than a system level failure, but rather to strive for more action time during a high-risk and critical period for global trade and capital flows.
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