Today's market performance presents highly complex structural signals. The rise of risky assets is likely due to the "policy pressure" effect triggered by the intense sell-off in the US Treasury market. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds soared to 4.6%, forcing the market to bet that the Federal Reserve would have to take early action to maintain stability. This game sentiment became the main thread of the market rebound. Although several Federal Reserve officials still maintain a hawkish attitude, statements including those from Boston Fed President Susan Collins have hinted at an attitude of "being prepared to intervene if the market encounters problems," providing expected space for the game. At the same time, it is worth noting that the US dollar index (DXY) has fallen sharply while the bond market is selling, even falling below 100 at one point, showing a reverse divergence from US bond yields, indicating that some funds have not returned to US dollar assets, but have taken the path of "selling bonds for US dollars and then for euros", representing that funds are actively moving out of the US dollar denominated market. The data on the BTC chain shows that the current price has fallen back to the new chip concentration area around $83000, but there has been a clear daily reduction in holdings in the high concentration area ($93000-98000). Investors have shown signs of accelerated turnover and unstable emotions during the upward trend, indicating that this upward trend is more like a "liquidity game" rather than a bull market confirmation. What is even more alarming is that the CME interest rate market shows a decrease in the probability of a rate cut in June, with the expectation of no rate cut rising from 15% to 25%. If the Federal Reserve does not take action in the short term, the risk market's expectation of a bailout may fall through. In addition, if the first quarter GDP released at the end of the month is indeed predicted to be -2.8% by GDP Now, it will become a key trigger for policy shift, but it also means that the United States may be on the brink of a substantial recession. Overall, the current market is more of a test and rebound of the Federal Reserve's intervention, rather than a trend reversal. Instead, there is a greater need to be vigilant about the risk feedback of "failed market rescue" and "policy lag". This tweet is sponsored by @ ApeXProtocolCN | Dex With Apex