The difficulty of today's assignment is very high. I have consulted a lot of information, but I still don't think what I said is correct. I just recorded it as a confirmation of my own viewpoint in the future. The rise in the risk market today is likely due to the massive sell-off in the US Treasury market, especially with the 10-year US Treasury bond approaching 4.6% at its peak today. This move has led the market to believe that the Federal Reserve will soon intervene to rescue the market, thus driving up the rise of US stocks and Bitcoin. Therefore, we can also see that multiple Federal Reserve officials have appeared today to elaborate on monetary policy, and almost all of them have conveyed a signal that the Federal Reserve has no plans to adjust monetary policy in the short term. However, Boston Fed President Susan Collins did say, "If there is a problem, we (the Federal Reserve) are ready to intervene and solve it." But what followed closely was, "But currently we (the Federal Reserve) have not seen this situation Although it may seem like a hawkish statement, it still indicates that if there are pessimistic expectations in the economy, the Federal Reserve will intervene (rescue) the market. Therefore, the rise of the bond market is similar to "forcing the palace" to force the Federal Reserve to take action. It is precisely because of this that the market will start to buy and play games that the Federal Reserve will take action beyond expectations, which may include early interest rate cuts, abandoning balance sheet cuts, lifting SLR and other measures. Of course, these premises are not related to today's bond market and China's retaliatory sale of US bonds, or to other overseas countries' strategic adjustments. The specific situation still needs to be further examined. If the 10-year yield continues to rise (close to 5%), the market's expectations for Fed intervention may further heat up, and the accuracy of the forcing logic may improve. If it falls back, it may weaken the expectation of market rescue. More importantly, it may still depend on the following data. One is the first quarter GDP released at the end of April, which may become the trigger for the Federal Reserve to determine whether to intervene. If the GDP data really gives a -2.8% figure like GDPNow, the Federal Reserve may need to consider taking action, but if it does, it is likely to be a prelude to the economy entering a recession. Regardless of any direction, the current market has not yet met the conditions for a reversal, and it is likely to be only a temporary rebound to test the Fed's tolerance. Another point to note is that currently, the probability of CME not cutting interest rates by the Federal Reserve in June has increased from 15% to 25%, with a decrease of 25 and 50 basis points respectively. This also indicates that the market's uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in June is beginning to increase. This may lead to the failure of the Federal Reserve's rescue measures in the risk market expectations, which needs to be noted. Another thing to pay attention to is that the US dollar index has been in the opposite direction of the 10-year US Treasury bond since April 9th. When the 10-year US Treasury bond rises, the US dollar index is actually falling, which means that while selling the 10-year US Treasury bond, the US dollar is also being sold. From the exchange rate perspective, the rise of the euro has greatly increased, and it is not ruled out that selling US Treasury bonds for US dollars and then exchanging US dollars for euros may have caused the rise in US bond yields and the decline in the US dollar index, which also represents that some funds are migrating from the US dollar denominated market. Looking back at the data of Bitcoin, as the price rises, the turnover rate has increased, and more BTC are gathering around $83000. There are even signs of some long-term holders reducing their holdings. Although the price has risen, investors' sentiment is not very optimistic. At present, the bottom of $83000 is gradually forming, and chips on both sides are constantly being drawn, especially in the densely populated area between $93000 and $98000 where the largest single day reduction has occurred in recent times. Some investors' patience has already collapsed, which is somewhat similar to the trend of selling US bonds for US dollars and then for euros. This tweet is sponsored by @ ApeXProtocolCN | Dex With Apex