Whales’ Special Market Wrap: Apr 11, Wall Cloud BTC 30D ATM IV: 52.72% | ETH 30D ATM IV: 72.97% | SOL 30D ATM IV: 97.75% SPX 30D ATM IV: 37.82% | QQQ 30D ATM IV: 42.47% | GLD 30D ATM IV: 25.19% BTC annualised 1yr implied yield: 6.45% ETH annualised 1yr implied yield: 5.43% Rumours about the reciprocal tariff delay eventually became true, but Trump added a footnote: The 90-day delay can be canceled anytime. Obviously, he still wants to be the master of uncertainty. However, investors' "only choice" is to avoid risks in uncertainty. The selling behavior is no longer limited to reducing exposure to US stocks; the selling of US bonds and US dollars is also going on simultaneously. When the intraday amplitude of CHF/USD exceeds 3%, investors have actually priced in the uncertainty implied in the US dollar to a certain extent; the US dollar is no longer as "safe-haven" as before. From an expectation perspective, investors have already priced further declines in QQQ and SPY in the options market. In the crypto market, only interest rate cuts can alleviate investors' bearish sentiment about the future. At the same time, with the rapid rise in US bond yields, the risk premium of equity crypto assets has quickly converged to less than 100bps, which means that investments other than BTC, stablecoins and RWAed MMFs are no longer profitable - no matter from which perspective. The US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index has surged to a record high, leading to a sharp contraction in corporate investment due to extreme unpredictability. Without stable expectations, businesses are struggling to navigate the current environment. Amid a massive stock market crash, corporate outlooks offer little hope for recovery. Meanwhile, the SOFR-ONRRP spread has risen to its highest level outside month-end periods, and the TGCR-ONRRP spread has similarly widened to a non-month-end peak—signaling increasing funding pressures among major dealer banks. This is particularly concerning given the ongoing global market turbulence. Regarding global asset allocation, the core recommendation can be summarised in one word: de-equitisation. The challenges (tariffs, possible stagflation, possible recession, etc.) faced by real-economy firms in planning future investments have not yet been fully priced; instead, current valuations erode future growth potential. At the same time, we are witnessing a severe test of US sovereign creditworthiness itself. Therefore, constructing a non-delta, non-equity dominated portfolio may prove crucial for forward-looking investors. Our current concerns about the US stock market might seem unusual—after all, this market is known for its prolonged growth cycles. Yet, looking back over the past two years, the persistence of an inverted term structure of yields and a bull market under sustained high interest rates were equally anomalous. The inflection point of history may well be now. After a brief pullback, gold continued its upward trajectory to a new ATH, while BTC rebounded to around 80K. As confidence in the dollar wanes, gold remains the first refuge, but BTC's latent value should not be underestimated.