Adam@Greeks.live
Adam@Greeks.live|Apr 11, 2025 04:27
Option delivery data on April 11th28000 BTC options have expired, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.88, a maximum pain point of $81500, and a nominal value of $2.26 billion. 184000 ETH options have expired, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.92, a maximum pain point of $1700, and a nominal value of $280 million. This week, the mood was quite panicked, as Trump's frequent changes in tariff policies led to a great sense of risk aversion in the market. We expect that the trade war and tariff war are far from over, and market uncertainty will continue for a long time, with market fluctuations also continuing for a long time. The delivery volume accounts for more than 10% of the total holdings, with the largest holdings currently being quarterly options in June. The April options holdings are basically the same as June, and the market structure is basically the same as last week, mainly due to the low sentiment. The implied volatility IV of BTC has significantly decreased and is currently maintained at around 50% for all maturities, while the IV of ETH has remained at a relatively high level, with a medium to short term volatility of around 80%. Therefore, selling ETH options in the short term would be a good choice. Cryptocurrencies currently lack new capital and narrative, and investor sentiment is relatively low. In this poor bull to bear market, the probability of a black swan occurring will significantly increase, and buying some deep bearish values would be a good choice.
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