Joe Burnett, MSBA
Joe Burnett, MSBA|Apr 10, 2025 23:21
Unpopular opinion: MSTR’s bitcoin buys don’t affect the price much. Not because they aren’t big—but because of how they’re funded. Most of their buys come from selling equity or convertible notes. Let’s start with equity. If you sell 1 BTC on Kraken and buy 1 BTC on Coinbase—what happens to the price? Nothing. It’s an economically-neutral trade. It doesn’t create net new demand—it just shifts exposure. Same idea here: MSTR sells stock, someone buys that stock instead of bitcoin, and then MSTR then takes the cash and buys bitcoin. Net-net? No new demand—just a shift in exposure. Convertible notes? Similar story. Hedge funds buy the notes, but hedge by shorting MSTR (selling MSTR shares). As MSTR rises, they short more. Eventually, those notes convert to equity too. So even those buys are functionally like equity issuance. In both cases, the capital flows into bitcoin—but only after flowing out of a bitcoin proxy. No real net inflow into the asset itself. Now, what does move the price? New capital buying bitcoin—without selling another bitcoin proxy. Apple. GameStop. The U.S. government. Someone selling their house or reallocating savings. Even STRK and STRF are closer to that—especially if the buyer is rotating out of bonds. MSTR’s strategy is brilliant, and Saylor is a great bitcoin educator. But from a market impact perspective—the billion dollar bitcoin acquisitions are more nuanced than people think.
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