After a series of operations by Chuanbao, Bitcoin has entered a clear downward trend. Not to mention Ethereum, it is basically close to the lowest point of the previous bear market. Bitcoin can be relatively stronger, but it still has a bit of gold shining on it. Gold is almost the only one that has risen this year. Wait quietly, it's not the bottom yet, at least there are some obvious black swans including war risks that haven't been planned by the market. And the Federal Reserve is also framed by tariff policies, making it difficult to relax. Or, to put it another way, I have always suspected that we are following the script of 1930, the Depression, which was also a time of monetary tightening and tariffs. Looking back at World War II, I feel that the United States had a clear trajectory. It created a depression to drive the right-wing, then pushed both sides of the war to sell weapons, and finally fought until the right-wing established its own global empire. What about this time? It feels difficult. If the US bombs Yemen's ammunition depot and it's gone, they need to transfer weapons from the Pacific. How can the US sell weapons without a manufacturing industry? But if you have a manufacturing industry, relying solely on tariffs is useless. If the per capita GDP is blown too high, it is not suitable to tighten the screws unless the US dollar depreciates by more than 50%, creating a group of domestic poor people.