
Haotian | CryptoInsight|Apr 10, 2025 12:49
Next, the market will enter a major cycle of "lowering expectations":
1) The project's Builder lowered its expectations, returning to a $100000 financing from a luxury start-up team with a valuation of over a billion yuan, and Xiaomi's fighting mentality of adding rifles, the ability to "survive" is the top priority;
2) VC investors have lowered their expectations. The high valuation model of following the big VC Fomo to invest is no longer effective. VC investors who can survive will inevitably return to seeking small and beautiful innovative technology teams or Ponzi who can make things happen. Small investments, multiple targets, and quick exits will become mainstream. What, accumulation?? You also need to meet the threshold of accumulating games;
3) Holders of coins have lowered their expectations. Previously, they adhered to a "technical narrative+long termism" and always wanted to follow past empiricism to make a big deal (10-100 times). In the future, retail investors have to strengthen their "Trader" skills, increase their trading frequency appropriately, and give up the illusion of a hundred or a thousand times. 3-5 times is already a hellish difficulty (except for pure PVP lottery logic). After all, the situation of this Holder is so cruel, and everyone has learned a profound lesson;
4) Dropping airdrops can lower expectations. When everyone is focused on grooming their hair, it actually narrows down the potential reward space for airdrops, especially in the context of highly mature industrial production lines in studios. So, there is a high probability that "quiet masturbation" will become the norm, and the frequent investment of tens of thousands of hairpins will also become history. The main focus is on being able to do zero masturbation without placing heavy bets, enjoying opportunities privately, and never sharing food with others;
5) Market narratives have lowered expectations, and in the past, the Crypto market always pursued the "narrative resonance" effect, from DeFi NFT、GameFi、 Moving on to Restaking BTCFi、 Chain abstraction AI Agent, Every round of narration wants to perform the glory of DeFi Summer, but the fact proves that the expected evolution of narration has become weaker and weaker, and it is difficult for the market to support a huge market foam by a single technical narration. Perhaps the micro narration that blooms in many places will become the norm;
6) The construction of chain Infra reduces expectations. Crypto has always relied on constantly stacking Infra narratives to expand expectations, from high-performance layer 1 to Rolllup layer 2, as well as various chain architecture models that take differentiated technology routes. It has been proven that the era of pure technology is over, and the market will only shift to "attention is king" in the future. Infra that only has technology, no community stickiness, and continuous capital accumulation and circulation will lose its market;
7) The CEX wealth effect has lowered expectations. For a long time, CEX has become the focus of public opinion and discussion due to its control over the vast majority of liquidity. The so-called "CEX listing effect" and "DEX PVP free market" have become the AB side of market attention pursuit. However, relying too much on CEX to create wealth effects will inevitably result in weaker listing effects. Ultimately, the wealth effect should be determined by the long-term build cycle of the project and the cost of getting on board.
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