
TraderS | 缺德道人|Apr 10, 2025 12:16
Invited by @ Bybit_ZH to participate in an event in Bali, I just checked into the hotel and didn't have time to write tonight's CPI. In short, the general direction of the global economy lies in Trump's policy and tariff war. At this stage, macro data is not so important. After all, the Federal Reserve and Trump are not at the same table.
In fact, Trump's biggest weapon or threat is that he can't predict his unconstrained behavior. But in fact, his upper and lower limits have been measured this time, so it's not so terrible. Even if he continues to use some tricks to kill his teacher, his effectiveness will be greatly reduced
So for the pure data level, we need to see whether this data can effectively alleviate the market's expectations of inflation and recession, and we need to look at the directional implications behind what this data wants to express. After all, Trump's pressure has failed in recent days. Although the market once made up to five times * 25BP=125BP for interest rate reduction bets in the past few days, the fast reading declined after the 90 day detente period yesterday. If tonight's CPI effectively conveys confidence and dispells market concerns about inflation and recession, then it is a good data that can rise, and vice versa
Today's schedule is good, thank you again @ Bybit_ZH. The old man is also participating in this kind of activity as a KOL for the first time
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