My current thoughts on tariffs: - China and US locking horns is the main show - Increasing 10-year yield likely pushes Fed closer to acting in emergency fashion - The 10-year likely going up through manipulation and China tries to exert pain on US through dumping treasuries - Other countries coming to the table to negotiate. Expect trade deals announced within 1 week or so. - Wall Street starting to settle into the idea that tariffs will be part of the new normal - Good companies likely to do very well in future — this is all noise in long run - Tariff rates will come down from announced levels closer to 5-10% in steady state Keep your head on a swivel. Rough seas out there for a little longer. Those who don’t panic will do best.