Things in China’s favor: 1. US needs to roll a lot of debt in the first half of 2025. 2. Midterm elections are a risk for Trump if he goes too hard for too long. 3. The Chinese, culturally, are world champions at being willing to endure hardship. 4. China controls a lot of rare earth metal production. Things in the US’s favor: 1. China needs to fight deflation and already has a lot of debt. 2. Net importers have the advantage over net exporters in a trade war. 3. US can make trade deals with countries that net export to the US and net import from China where US tariffs are dropped if those countries puts up tariffs on Chinese imports. 4. The CCP really doesn’t want to see civil unrest like during the late stages of their zero covid policy. 5. US has geographic control of many global canals and shipping routes. This is why Panama was important. Net-net I think the US wins this chicken game. Probably still best for someone like Singapore to try and broker a meeting so neither side has to approach the other first and they can both save face.