The oolong incident on Monday reminds people of the fake news about the BlackRock spot ETF. Although the news was falsified, the market reaction was unusually stable, with BTC and US stocks maintaining high levels, indicating that investors still have hope for the easing of tariff policies. This also proves once again that funds are available and liquidity is poor, but it's not that no one is buying, it's just waiting for signals. The US stock market traded nearly $2 trillion in 15 minutes, and BTC rose over 4000 in the short term, indicating that wait-and-see funds are ready to enter the market at any time. In other words, as long as there is a slight loosening of macro or policy, buying power can erupt. But the real difficulty lies not in the misunderstanding or tariffs, but in the upcoming GDP data to be released. If it is really -2.8%, then it is not difficult for the US stock market to fall another 20%. Today, even the CEO of BlackRock believes that the United States may have entered a recession. The reaction of market panic has also been reflected in VIX: today's VIX broke through 60 in intraday trading, the last time was in August 2024 (65.73), and even earlier was in March 2020 (it reached 85 during the pandemic). The VIX breaking 50 can almost be seen as the starting point of a technical bear market. In the data on the BTC chain, structural differentiation can also be seen, and the sources of panic are mostly new funds that failed to bottom out within two days. On the contrary, long-term holders have hardly taken much action, even if they suffer losses, they are still watching. At this stage, it is not easy to make long-term investors surrender through price drops. After the misunderstanding, the US stock market has begun a comprehensive recovery, and market sentiment is slowly recovering, but the premise is that we only talk about "tariffs". If we are talking about 'recession' or even 'continuous negative growth', that is the deeper source of risk. This tweet is sponsored by @ ApeXProtocolCN | Dex With Apex