The difficulty of Monday's homework has clearly increased. The last time there was an error was when BlackRock applied for a spot ETF, but the results of these two times are quite similar. Although it was exposed as false information last time, the price of BTC did not significantly fall, but remained stable at a high level. This time, although it was also an error, both Bitcoin and the US stock market have maintained good positions, which also indicates investors' expectations that tariffs may reverse. The other two oolong events also told us that although the market liquidity is poor, investors still have money in their hands. In just 15 minutes, the total trading volume of the US stock market surged to nearly 2 trillion US dollars, indicating that a large amount of wait-and-see funds are looking for suitable entry opportunities. Although there is no clear fund statistics in the cryptocurrency field, it has also caused BTC to rise by more than 4000 US dollars in a short period of time, which also represents that investors have money in their hands, after all, they long to end at the right time. And this also tells us that as long as macro or tariff policies are eased, the buying power in the market is still very strong. In terms of tariffs, we can also see that Trump's pressure on the market has led the risk market to "take the edge". This afternoon, the VIX exceeded 60, which means that the market's expectation of volatility in the next 30 days has reached an epidemic level of panic. The last time it was so high was in August 2024 at 65.73, and the last time was during the economic recession in March 2020, when it was over 85. As we have mentioned before, if the VIX is above 50, it can basically indicate that the US stock market has entered a bear market. What's even more troublesome is that tariffs are still a "small matter", and after tariffs, there will be GDP data at the end of the month. Today, including the CEO of BlackRock, everyone believes that the probability of the United States entering or already entering a recession is high, and the GDP data will confirm the economic results. If it is really -2.8, it is not difficult for the market to fall another 20%. So April is quite difficult, not because of one-sided market trends, but because there are too many uncertain games driven by events. Looking back at the data of Bitcoin itself, there was indeed a panic today. The panic sentiment has been satisfied since the Asian events, and the market sentiment was not good enough until the A-share market closed. The turnover rate is about 0.5 times that of normal time. However, from the turnover data, it can be seen that it is still the main source of short-term investors' turnover, and those who have experienced panic are investors who have been buying at the bottom in the past two days. On the contrary, earlier investors did not show much reaction, which is consistent with our analysis during the day. Although the price of BTC fell, it did not trigger much trading volume. Most holders still maintained a wait-and-see attitude, even those who lost money earlier. Even from the data, it can be seen that investors between $93000 and $98000 have less than 10000 BTC left the market, and investors who try to build a bottom between $82000 and $83000 are the ones who have left the market the most. This conclusion also indicates that it is difficult for early holders to give up their chips through low prices. As of now, although it has been a mistake, the US stock market has started to rise comprehensively, and market sentiment should gradually recover, provided that only tariffs are mentioned, not a recession. This tweet is sponsored by @ ApeXProtocolCN | Dex With Apex